Josh Pate Names Dark Horse Big Ten Contender in 2026

First-year Penn State football head coach Matt Campbell waves to the crowd. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Penn State Nittany Lions had one of the biggest job openings in college football this past offseason.

They chose to hire Matt Campbell from the Iowa State Cyclones. This decision followed the program's separation from James Franklin during the 2025 season after 12 years of leadership.

Franklin's tenure was marked by significant success. He achieved a 104-45 record and guided Penn State to its first College Football Playoff appearance, advancing to the semifinals before losing in the final seconds of the game.

However, expectations were high entering the next season, and a 3-3 start ultimately resulted in his dismissal.

Despite consistently winning seasons, Franklin's difficulties in high-profile matchups became a notable part of his narrative. He ended his career with a 6-6 record in bowl games and a 16-29 record against ranked opponents. His performance against elite competition was particularly troubling, with a 4-21 record against top-10 teams and just a 1-16 mark against AP top-five opponents.

First-year Penn State football head coach Matt Campbell, right, walks into Beaver Stadium. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Those shortcomings played a significant role in the program’s decision to make a change. Penn State’s leadership sought a coach capable of elevating the program in its biggest moments.

Campbell’s record at Iowa State included challenges similar to Franklin’s in marquee matchups. He went 4-6 against top-10 teams, 14-25 against ranked opponents and 3-4 in bowl games. However, there is context behind those numbers. Campbell often coached against more talented rosters while at Iowa State, which limited his ceiling in those matchups.

That context is key to the optimism surrounding his hire. At Penn State, Campbell is expected to have access to stronger recruiting pipelines, deeper rosters and greater institutional support. That’s why Josh Pate said on his show, "Josh Pate's College Football Show," that if a chaotic scenario unfolds, where Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon fail to meet expectations, the Nittany Lions could contend for the conference title immediately.

"The bakery that spat out this cookie dough soft that Penn State's going to play, maybe Matt Campbell pulls it off in year one," Pate said. "If he gets to Indianapolis and you got a really wobbly Ohio State or a wobbly Indiana or Oregon... It's Penn State USC or Penn State-Michigan for the conference title."

If Campbell were to capitalize on that opportunity and win the conference in his first season, he would immediately validate the program’s decision to move on from Franklin.

It would also signal that Penn State has finally found a coach capable of delivering in the moments that matter most, something the program has been chasing for years.