Josh Pate names undefeated top-five program at risk of upset on Saturday

Josh Pate warns that Texas A&M could fall to Arkansas, citing third downs, turnovers, and SEC parity.

College football analyst Josh Pate believes Texas A&M could be at risk of an upset against Arkansas in Week 8. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

College football analyst Josh Pate issued a clear warning on Thursday’s episode of his College Football Show podcast: No. 4 Texas A&M could be in danger when it visits Arkansas this weekend. The Aggies are unbeaten through six games, but Pate said the ingredients for an upset are in place.

Texas A&M (6-0, 3-0 in the Southeastern Conference) hits the road for only the second time this season. The Aggies visit Arkansas (2-4, 0-2) on Saturday for the first on-campus meeting between the programs since 2013. Texas A&M has dominated the series with 12 wins in the past 13 matchups, but the Razorbacks’ desperation under interim coach Bobby Petrino adds tension.

Pate rated the matchup at a “6.5 on the upset-alert concern scale,” pointing to third-down efficiency and turnovers as key indicators. “If the upset were to happen, I think third-down conversion rate is probably something that we look back on in the box score and see it heavily tilted Arkansas’s way,” he said. “Turnovers would help too.” He emphasized how tight the SEC has become, warning that favored teams often struggle in conference road games.

Texas A&M vs Arkansas Upset Alert: What Pate Foresees

Pate noted that Texas A&M enters as a 7.5-point favorite but questioned whether the Aggies can truly stay unbeaten. “Do you think A&M’s going to go undefeated?” he asked. “Most people’s answer is no … so where’s the loss? Could be where you least suspect it.” He referenced Arkansas’ narrow loss to Tennessee last week as proof the Razorbacks can compete against strong teams.

Pate also acknowledged that while Texas A&M’s defense has been exceptional on third down, its offense ranks 83rd nationally in conversion rate, compared to Arkansas at third. “That’s over the course of a season,” he said. “But if the upset were to happen, I think third-down conversion rate is probably something that we look back on … see it heavily tilted Arkansas’s way.”

Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed (10) and the Aggies are undefeated at 6-0 entering their Week 8 matchup against the Arkansas Razorbacks. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

He tied the concern back to the SEC’s competitive balance, noting there isn’t much separation among most teams.

“You’re going on the road, and you’re favored by over a touchdown in someone else’s building,” he said. “That’s a pretty big deal.”

How Arkansas Could Push Texas A&M to the Limit

The Aggies have been dominant defensively, allowing opponents to convert only two of 33 third-down attempts in SEC play. They’ve stifled Auburn, Mississippi State, and Florida in succession, holding all three to 10 percent or worse on third down.

Head coach Mike Elko admitted he’d prefer a neutral site for this rivalry. “When you have to go on the road, you’d rather go play at a neutral site,” Elko said. “When you have an opportunity to play at home, you’d rather play at home. It just kind of is what it is.”

The Aggies will be without leading rusher Le’Veon Moss, sidelined with an ankle injury. Moss led the team with 389 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Sophomore Rueben Owens II now carries the load, coming off back-to-back strong outings that totaled 193 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

Texas A&M Aggies running back Rueben Owens II (4) ran for 142 yards on 21 carries two weeks ago against Mississippi State. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Arkansas’ offense remains explosive under Petrino, with quarterback Taylen Green throwing for 1,654 yards and 14 touchdowns while adding 504 rushing yards. Petrino, who was Texas A&M’s offensive coordinator in 2023, praised Aggies quarterback Marcel Reed for his quickness and awareness, calling him “a playmaker who moves around and makes plays.”

Both teams have already faced Notre Dame this season with opposite results: Texas A&M won 41-40 on the road, while Arkansas lost 56-13 at home. That contrast underscores the gap between the programs entering Saturday’s game. Still, Pate’s warning resonates because upsets often come in familiar matchups where one side is overlooked.

Texas A&M will face Arkansas on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, airing nationally on ESPN.