Josh Pate Predicts SEC Powerhouse Could Fall Short in the CFP Again in 2026

Georgia head coach Kirby Smart looks toward the field during the Sugar Bowl. | Ayrton Breckenridge/Clarion Ledger / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Georgia Bulldogs have a College Football Playoff problem.

That seems ridiculous to say because following the 2022 season, the Bulldogs had won back-to-back national championships in the CFP era. The issue for Kirby Smart's team is that it's been the last time Georgia won a playoff game, and it's not because they haven't made it.

Recent Playoff Struggles Despite Consistent Appearances

In fact, 2023 is the only year they didn't make it. In that year, Georgia went 12-0 in the regular season and was No. 1 throughout. That was until the Bulldogs lost 27-24 to the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game, which knocked Georgia out of the playoff.

The next two seasons, Georgia won the SEC and made the CFP, earning a first-round bye as the playoff expanded to 12 teams. In 2024, they lost 23-10 to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish; in 2025, the Bulldogs lost 39-34 to the Ole Miss Rebels.

Mississippi Rebels linebacker Suntarine Perkins (4) strip sacks Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton (14) in the fourth quarter. | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Josh Pate Believes the Patten Could Continue

On "Josh Pate's College Football Show," the analyst read a bold prediction submitted by a fan. The prediction stated that Georgia will win the SEC and lose its first playoff game for the third year in a row. That's something that Pate says could happen.

"They've got to win the league," Pate said. "I could easily see that happen. It's not hard to envision the second part either because what if the SEC just feels like it did last year again this year where it's not a whole lot of great but there's a collection of very good and the best of the very good teams wins the league and then Georgia they'll probably have a first round bye... and then they go and they just face a hot quarterback... that's the difference in the game."

The biggest issue for the Bulldogs is that they can no longer stockpile talent on their second and third teams. Instead, those players are entering the transfer portal and finding better opportunities to start. That is being felt on the defensive side of the ball.

In 2021, Georgia allowed 268.5 yards per game, ranking No. 2 in the country. In 2022, the team allowed 296.8, ranking No. 10. In 2024, the Bulldogs allowed 329.9 yards per game, ranking No. 30, and in 2025, 298 yards per game, ranking No. 14. Last year shows the defense is starting to figure things out when they don't have as much talent as they had in 2021 and 2022.

Critical Season Ahead for Georgia

That's why it could be a big year in Athens this season. That's not to say Georgia doesn't have talent. It is still one of the most talented teams in the sport. It has just made it more difficult to have elite defenses when it doesn't have the depth it once did.

But that's the new reality of college football. That's something Smart has to figure out and put any College Football Playoff concerns to rest.