Josh Pate puts two-loss SEC program on upset alert in Week 11

College football analyst Josh Pate placed a ranked SEC program on upset alert in Week 11, citing defensive matchups and limited possessions.

College football analyst Josh Pate believes this two-loss SEC team is at risk of an upset in Week 11. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Vanderbilt football has built momentum behind a balanced offense and a defense that stops the run as well as any team in the SEC. Auburn, meanwhile, enters the weekend with interim coach D.J. Durkin and a renewed edge after a difficult midseason stretch. The combination has drawn attention from national college football analyst Josh Pate, who cautioned that the matchup could turn into a trap for the home team.

During Thursday’s episode of hisCollege Football Show, Pate said Vanderbilt’s near comeback against Texas showed grit but also exposed the risk of its slow-paced style. “I just think Vandy showed they are not checked out of anything,” Pate said.

“They almost came from behind at Texas last week. So I am going to put a seven [on his upset concern meter] on this game. Limited possessions, anything could happen. I am going to put a seven on it, but I am not betting it or anything like that.”

Josh Pate Points To Auburn’s Defense And Vanderbilt’s Narrow Margin

Pate said Auburn’s defensive consistency could make things uncomfortable for Vanderbilt. The Tigers have held seven straight opponents under 100 rushing yards and rank ninth nationally in that category. Vanderbilt’s ground game has been steady, averaging 187.2 yards per game, but the Commodores have been penalized often and rely on quarterback Diego Pavia to keep drives alive through the air.

“They play a very low margin for error style of football. So does Auburn,” Pate said. “The total in this is 45 and a half and frankly I think even that is a little high.”

Auburn Tigers interim head coach and defensive coordinator DJ Durkin now leads the program after Hugh Freeze's firing. | Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK

Pavia has accounted for 24 total touchdowns this season while completing nearly 70 percent of his passes. Auburn will counter with running back Jeremiah Cobb and a defense that ranks 18th nationally in points allowed. Pate said the matchup could hinge on which team avoids mistakes in a game expected to feature long drives and limited possessions.

Kickoff is set for Saturday at 4 p.m. ET on SEC Network.