Kirk Herbstreit Names SEC Powerhouse That Can’t Afford to Lose Week 7 Game

ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit believes LSU’s season hinges on Saturday’s visit from No. 16 Mississippi State, with coach Lane Kiffin’s Tigers at 4-2 after an overtime loss at Kentucky dropped them 12 spots to No. 22 in the Associated Press Top 25.

Herbstreit put it plainly when discussing the noon ET kickoff in Baton Rouge on his Nonstop podcast: “Mississippi State and LSU. LSU cannot afford to lose that football game.”

Why can’t LSU afford another loss?

Tigers quarterback Sam Leavitt — LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt (10) scrambles against the Kentucky Wildcats | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

LSU led 27-24 in the final five minutes at Kroger Field, and Kentucky kicker Adam Zouagui missed field goals from 42 and 26 yards, the second after quarterback Sam Leavitt was sacked and fumbled. Zouagui then hit a 33-yarder with 12 seconds left to force overtime.

Leavitt scored on a 15-yard run in the extra period, but running back CJ Baxter answered with a 1-yard touchdown and quarterback Kenny Minchey ran in the winning two-point conversion.

“When the chance comes in the fourth quarter, you can’t let ’em hang around,” Kiffin told reporters after the 35-34 loss.

The defeat followed a 32-24 loss at Ole Miss in Week 3, so LSU is 4-0 at Tiger Stadium and 0-2 on the road. Kiffin arrived on a seven-year, $91 million contract with College Football Playoff expectations, and both losses have come against SEC teams away from Baton Rouge.

After Saturday, LSU travels to Auburn before a November stretch with No. 6 Alabama and No. 7 Texas at home, then road trips to No. 14 Tennessee and Arkansas. A third loss before that run would likely force the Tigers to sweep three ranked opponents just to stay in the 12-team Playoff conversation.

Kamario Taylor’s health clouds Mississippi State

Bulldogs quarterback Kamario Taylor — Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor (1) waits for the snap during the third quarter against the Alabama Crimson Tide | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Mississippi State (4-1, 2-1 SEC) spent its Week 6 bye recovering from a 56-23 home loss to Alabama on Oct. 3. Sophomore quarterback Kamario Taylor hurt his lower leg against Missouri on Sept. 26, played through it against the Crimson Tide and finished with minus-26 rushing yards on six carries before leaving in the fourth quarter. Running back Fluff Bothwell also went down with a lower-body injury on his first carry of that game.

“Kamario wasn’t able to do anything with his legs,” Bulldogs coach Jeff Lebby said afterward. Lebby called Taylor day-to-day and didn’t offer a timeline: “We’ll let the injury report that Wednesday of LSU speak to where we’re at.”

A healthy Taylor changes the matchup. The Macon, Mississippi, native became the first SEC quarterback with three or more touchdown passes in five straight games since Jayden Daniels at LSU in 2023, and Mississippi State’s offense ranks third nationally in adjusted expected points added per play. Still, the Bulldogs’ defense ranks 82nd in that metric, while LSU’s defense ranks fourth.

What’s at stake for Mississippi State?

Bulldogs head coach Jeff Lebby — Mississippi State head coach Jeff Lebby reacts toward a referee during the second quarter against the Alabama Crimson Tide | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Lebby entered his third season 1-15 in SEC play, and a win in Baton Rouge would push the Bulldogs to 3-1 in the conference ahead of Oklahoma at home and a trip to Texas. Mississippi State’s last win in the series came at Tiger Stadium in 2020, when K.J. Costello threw for 623 yards in a 44-34 upset under Mike Leach, but LSU won the next three meetings.

A road win over a ranked LSU team would also strengthen Mississippi State’s standing among the programs chasing their first College Football Playoff berth. The Bulldogs and Tigers kick off at noon ET on ESPN.

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