NIL over NFL is the new wave for quarterback prospects, a trend that could impact 2026 draft

The NFL released the list of underclassmen who gave up their collegiate eligibility to formally declare for the 2026 NFL draft. There are 42 names on the list, plus an additional 21 who have completed their college coursework while still holding additional eligibility.

Of those 63 total players, exactly one is a quarterback: Alabama’s Ty Simpson, who falls into the latter group. Simpson spent four years at Alabama and graduated, but has thrown his football hat into the NFL draft ring. Not one true underclassman quarterback opted to enter the 2026 draft.

The early entrant numbers as a whole are down regardless of position. From 2017 to 2022, no fewer than 98 players left college early for the NFL. Last year, just 55 declared early, which puts this year’s count of 63 up a little. But at the quarterback position, Simpson is the only one this year, just as Quinn Ewers represented the entire stock of 2025 early entrant QBs.

How it used to be

Ty Simpson passes against Indiana in the quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff. Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images — Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson passes against Indiana in the 2026 Rose Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff at Rose Bowl Stadium. Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

It used to be a race for quarterbacks to get to the NFL, leaving college as early as possible to cash in on their talent. As recently as 2024, three early-entrant QBs were selected in the top 10 overall: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy. In the 2024 NFL Draft, three of the first four overall picks (No. 1 Bryce Young, No. 2 C.J. Stroud and No. 4 Anthony Richardson) were underclassmen quarterbacks.

That rush to leave college for the greener pastures of the NFL has waned severely in the last two classes.

Ewers was a late-round blip in last year’s draft, a seventh-rounder by the Dolphins. Simpson doesn’t project as a top-10 pick, and it’s easy to find draft analysts who don’t believe the one-year starter belongs anywhere near the first round, skill-wise. The NFL’s unquenchable thirst for quarterbacks could keep Simpson among the first 32 picks, but some of that is because of other QBs who opted to stay in school.

Dante Moore is the most notable. Instead of being a strong candidate for a top-3 overall selection, Moore is headed back to Oregon for another year. Brendan Sorsby opted to transfer to Texas Tech from Cincinnati rather than become embroiled in the debate of where he belongs in the first 100 or so draft picks in 2026. Texas’ Arch Manning also stayed in school despite considerable early-season hype that he could be the No. 1 pick in 2026.

Why stay? Money talks...

Duke QB Darian Mensah celebrates after the Blue Devils score a touchdown in the ACC title game. Bob Donnan-Imagn — Duke QB Darian Mensah celebrates after the Blue Devils score a touchdown during the ACC Championship game. Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

NIL money is certainly part of the reason, especially for quarterbacks like Sorsby or Darian Mensah, who hit the transfer portal from Duke rather than declaring early. They projected as likely Day 2 draftees, somewhere in the range of Hendon Hooker back in the 2023 draft.

Hooker was drafted No. 66 overall by the Detroit Lions. His initial NFL contract paid him $5.72 million over four years, with $1.16 million guaranteed. That’s not competitive with the reported $5 million straight cash that Sorsby will get for going to Texas Tech. It’s the quarterbacks in that range who are the biggest beneficiaries of the NIL over the NFL, and that word is spreading quickly. As a result, the NFL Draft classes are bound to be weaker in the later rounds--especially at the most important position, quarterback.