NFL Scouts Remain ‘Cautious’ on 3,500-Yard QB Ahead of 2026 Draft

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson established himself as a productive starter in 2025, throwing for 3,567 yards and 28 touchdowns. Despite these high-level numbers, NFL evaluators are entering the 2026 draft cycle with a measured outlook on the former five-star prospect.

Simpson helped his standing at the NFL Scouting Combine by showing improved touch on deep balls and functional arm strength. However, questions regarding his limited starting experience and late-season efficiency drops continue to circulate among league decision-makers.

Scouts are currently weighing his high-level processing against physical limitations and a tendency to hold the ball too long. This creates a divided perspective on whether he belongs in the first round or is a Day 2 developmental project.

Why NFL scouts are cautious about Ty Simpson in the 2026 draft

The narrative surrounding Simpson reflects a broader trend in professional scouting where teams must prioritize mental processing over raw physical tools. After spending three years behind Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe, Simpson earned Second-Team All-SEC honors during his lone year as a full-time starter in 2025.

His ability to adjust protections and identify blitzes pre-snap makes him one of the more mentally prepared prospects in the 2026 class. ESPN analyst Jordan Reid highlighted a dominant eight-game stretch in which Simpson completed 71.9% of his passes against ranked opponents such as Georgia and Tennessee.

However, the national perspective is shaped by a perceived lack of depth at the position. One AFC area scout noted that the high demand for quarterbacks will likely outweigh the actual quality of the 2026 class.

.@AlabamaFTBL QB Ty Simpson's best throws from the Combine 👀

2026 NFL Combine on @nflnetwork
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/dW1saM1Kw5
— NFL (@NFL) March 1, 2026

"I wouldn't draft him until Day 2, but I think he has a chance to go in that 20-32 range," the scout told ESPN. "It's because the demand will highly outweigh the quality of supply in this year's class."

This scarcity of talent could force a quarterback-needy team to reach for Simpson in the late first round. Evaluators remain wary of his 11.2% off-target rate down the stretch and an inability to layer the ball over linebackers with elite velocity.

Lance Zierlein of NFL.com pointed out that one-year starters rarely find immediate success without a clear developmental roadmap. Simpson’s late-season struggles included a performance against Auburn in which he averaged only 3.5 yards per attempt.

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson (15) passes against the Indiana Hoosiers in the first half of the 2026 Rose Bowl. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

These inconsistencies were partially attributed to back, elbow, and rib injuries suffered during the second half of the season. While he drew comparisons to Brock Purdy for his improvisational skills, his 47.6 PFF grade under pressure suggests he still struggles when the pocket collapses.

He was sacked three or more times in seven different games last year. Scouts are looking for him to improve his judgment on when to throw the ball away versus attempting to extend dead plays.

The 2026 NFL Draft will begin on Thursday, April 23, in Pittsburgh.