NFL Upset Predictions and Picks for Wild Card Round (Can Jaguars Hand Bills a Loss?)

Iain MacMillan | 19 Hours Ago

Bet Chargers to Upset Patriots in Wild Card Round. / Herbert: Ric Tapia/Getty Images, Maye: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

It's time to move on to the NFL Playoffs, and with the regular season being as unpredictable and chaotic as it was, this year's postseason promises some wild results. Things will start with the six Wild Card Round games, and if you're looking to find a few teams that could pull off a surprising upset, you're in the right place.

Iain MacMillan and Peter Dewey have broken down two of their upset plays for the opening round of the NFL Playoffs.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Iain MacMillan Wild Card Round Upset Pick

Los Angeles Chargers (+166) vs. New England Patriots

The Patriots' weak schedule has been a point of contention all season long, and for good reason. Yes, their record has been fantastic, and Drake Maye is a potential MVP, but the fact that they played just three games against teams that ended with winning records and went 1-2 in those games is a troubling sign moving into the postseason.

There's something to be said for the difference between these two defenses. The Patriots have had one of the worst defenses in the NFL, ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA, 11th in opponent EPA per play, and 18th in opponent success rate. The Chargers rank 10th, fifth, and seventh in those three metrics.

The biggest weakness for the Chargers is their injured offensive line, but the Patriots have pressured opposing quarterbacks on just 19.0% of their opponents' dropbacks, which ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL. If they can't pressure Herbert, the Chargers may just pull off this upset.

Peter Dewey Wild Card Round Upset Pick

Jacksonville Jaguars (-106) vs. Buffalo Bills

There are a bunch of close spreads in these wild card matchups, and I think Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars are equipped to pull off a small upset at home against the Buffalo Bills.

While betting against Josh Allen may not be a popular pick, he’s just 5-8 against the spread in the playoffs in his career, and I don’t think Buffalo has the better all-around team in this matchup. The Bills are 31st in the NFL in EPA/Rush this season, and the Jacksonville offense has been rolling over this eight-game winning streak, dropping 34 points on a vaunted Denver defense. 

The Jaguars went 7-1 in true home games (they played a “home” game in London) this season, and I’m not going to blindly bet on Allen when he has the inferior defense and inferior pass-catching weapons in this game.

Buffalo is a trendy Super Bowl pick, but I think Jacksonville is undervalued at -102 to win this game.

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