Can we expect a top-10 selection of a safety in the NFL draft? Caleb Downs fits the bill

Caleb Downs is a blue-chip prospect in the 2026 NFL Draft. A class that won’t have many. This creates a conversation about the value of the safety position in the modern NFL and how high a team could reasonably draft one. We have recent examples showing that safeties often go lower than expected. But has that always been the correct approach?

Historical comparisons of top-10 safeties to Caleb Downs

Jamal Adams jogs on the field prior to the game against the Buffalo Bills — Dec 29, 2019; Orchard Park, New York, USA; New York Jets strong safety Jamal Adams (33) jogs on the field prior to the game against the Buffalo Bills at New Era Field. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-Imagn Images | Rich Barnes-Imagn Images

The last safety selected in the top ten picks was Jamal Adams in the 2017 NFL Draft. Though Adams didn’t become a long-term piece for the Jets, he was an All-Pro defender early in his career. Since Adams, there have been several blue-chip-level safeties who turned in to draft steals. In 2018, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Derwin James went 11th and 17th, respectively, and both became two of the best players at their positions. Kyle Hamilton was pinned by some analysts as the top prospect in the 2022 NFL Draft. He fell to the 14th pick and is now the NFL’s best nickel defender in Baltimore.

We’ve seen some misses in evaluating how impactful recent safeties can be. However, prior to the Jamal Adams selection, there were also many first-round safeties who didn’t become long-term players for the teams that selected them. Perhaps this trend is cyclical?

The modern nickelback

Nov 27, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton (14) reacts against the Cincinnati Bengals during the first half at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

In an era of football where the run game is re-emerging as a changeup to keep pass-defending team off balance, the nickel position has become massively important again. The primary goal of offenses today is to pass the ball against defensive looks designed to stop the run. Today, a nickel player like Kyle Hamilton is a cheat code. The rare player who can hold up in coverage against quick or physical receivers without sacrificing physicality against the run. The question with a player like Downs is whether he fit these characteristics. A team that is confident he is a true three-level-impact defender will select Downs highly.

Available Positions

Another factor that could inflate Downs’ draft stock in 2026 compared to past seasons is the range of available positions among blue-chip prospects. We know two quarterbacks will be selected highly. Beyond that, the top prospects include an edge player who may project as a linebacker, an edge player who might be an interior defender, and a running back. Running backs face similar positional scrutiny to safeties, while tweener defenders often require a specific schematic fit. Downs may be the easiest blue-chip player for a team to plug directly into its starting lineup next season.

Final Thoughts

I think Downs will eventually be selected in the top ten picks come April. However, it may be the 10th pick. No doubt teams will regret selecting other players, as they did with James and Hamilton, if the pick produces. The NFL has become an immediacy-driven league, and far too many front offices believe an edge player or wide receiver can translate to success more quickly.