Paul Finebaum Issues Blunt Reality Check to College Football Powerhouse

Alabama made the College Football Playoff a year ago with two regular season losses, but a repeat performance in 2026 could cost the program a place in the 12-team field this time around, veteran analyst Paul Finebaum has warned.

“The problem for Alabama is, you can’t lose more than two games. We found that out last year, and I’m talking about the regular season,” Finebaum said during an appearance on McElroy and Cubelic in the Morning.

He added: “I think it’s that middle stretch. How do they navigate that run in the middle of the season?”

Alabama's mid-season stretch

October and November should prove critical for the Crimson Tide’s playoff hopes.

Georgia comes back to Tuscaloosa for a rematch of the SEC Championship Game, followed by a road date on Rocky Top, and then a return home against Texas A&M.

After an idle week, Alabama will be in Baton Rouge to face Lane Kiffin’s first LSU team and then away again to meet a resurgent Vanderbilt squad.

“That is really tricky. Some of it is simply going to depend on how good is LSU? Is Tennessee better than many people think? Because that game in Knoxville is always a little bit nervy,” Finebaum said.

“Right now, Georgia to me probably looks like the best team in the SEC along with Texas, and I’d probably pick Georgia to win that game [against Alabama].

“So I think Alabama then has to, assuming they lose that Georgia game, I think Alabama looks like about a 9-3 team, which would keep them out of the playoffs.”

Alabama's biggest question in 2026

One important question Kalen DeBoer and Alabama still have to answer is at the quarterback position.

Ty Simpson was pivotal to the Crimson Tide’s success on offense a year ago, but his departure leaves the team with one enormous data point on the depth chart that could go one way or another.

Austin Mack and Keelon Russell are the two candidates to succeed Simpson under center heading into 2026.

Both lack experience, and while Mack has more time in the Alabama system, he was not as heralded a recruit as Russell, the consensus No. 2 overall prospect and quarterback in the 2026 class.

On the bubble?

“Today, I’d have them on the bubble, only because I don’t know who the quarterback is going to be,” Finebaum said.

“I think that is obviously the key, and the one thing I like about Alabama is the schedule. If you end up at the wrong end of a nine game SEC schedule, there’s almost nothing you can do about it. Alabama’s in good shape, I think.”