Paul Finebaum Issues Warning to Major College Football Program's Playoff Hopes

SEC Nation analyst Paul Finebaum looks on prior to the game. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

LSU has built a roster that should compete for a championship. That part is not the question. The real question is much simpler and far more fragile.

Can its quarterback stay healthy?

That is what will define LSU’s 2026 season. Not the scheme, not the defense, not even the coaching transition under Lane Kiffin. It all comes back to the most important position on the field.

LSU made a statement this offseason by assembling the top transfer portal class in the country. At the center of that group is Sam Leavitt, a quarterback with proven production and the ability to elevate an offense.

On paper, this is exactly what LSU needed. A dynamic quarterback in a system built to maximize offensive efficiency should be a winning formula. But that formula only works if the quarterback is available.

New LSU Tigers quarterback Sam Leavitt. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

On “The Paul Finebaum Show,” the college football analyst made it clear just how important that availability is.

"One thing Lane Kiffin needs desperately is for Sam Leavitt to stay healthy," Finebaum said. "Because without Leavitt being a high-flying quarterback, this will not be a great team."

That is not an exaggeration. It is the reality of modern college football. Quarterback play determines everything, and LSU has already experienced what happens when that position is compromised.

Last season is the perfect example. Expectations were high, but injuries at quarterback derailed the offense and limited its ceiling. The result was a seven-win season that fell well short of what the roster suggested it could achieve.

Leavitt brings a different level of upside. His career numbers show a player capable of producing at a high level, and in Kiffin’s system, that production could reach another level. However, that upside comes with risk.

He missed significant time last season at Arizona State, and durability is now part of the conversation, whether LSU wants it to be or not.

That is the trade-off when building around a quarterback with a history of injuries.

If he stays healthy, LSU becomes one of the most dangerous teams in the country. The offense has the potential to be explosive, efficient and difficult to defend. That is the version of LSU that can contend for a playoff spot and more.

If he does not, the entire outlook changes. Depth at quarterback is rarely enough to sustain a championship run, and the margin for error in the SEC is too thin to overcome instability at that position.

That is why everything points back to one player. LSU has done the work to build a contender. Now it needs the most important piece to hold together.

Because in today’s game, you are only as good as your quarterback. And more importantly, you are only as good as his availability.