Paul Finebaum names college football powerhouse with 'long shot' at playoff

ESPN personality Paul Finebaum has rarely been shy with an opinion. Finebaum is also noted for rarely being shy in failing to take up the cause of his beloved Southeastern Conference, but even for the man often dubbed an SEC homer, Finebaum didn't see much way to spin the hard truth about an SEC power. Texas's CFP hopes, if not dead, are at best on life support after a miserable Week 12 for the Longhorns.

Texas took a third loss of the season against Georgia. Worse yet, it was a convincing 35-10 loss to fellow SEC power Georgia. The fact of the loss was bad, but the timing and the nature of the beatdown could be even more consequential, according to Finebaum in an appearance on The Matt Barrie Show.

Finebaum's Take

I think Texas has got a long shot now. Even beating A&M, that loss [Georgia] is going to haunt them like the Oklahoma loss did to Alabama a year ago, because it was so late and so bad.
Paul Finebaum

Texas's Path and Struggles

Finebaum's indication of even a long shot path for Texas is based first off an upset of No. 3 Texas A&M in the regular season finale. The Longhorns will have the home field advantage and ESPN's FPI statistics give Texas a 51.7% shot at winning that game. But even if Texas is able to pull that one out, Finebaum thinks the Georgia loss is significant.

Admittedly, a third loss of any type would have been damaging. But while Texas lost to No. 1 Ohio State to open the season and stumbled against 3-7 Florida, those were both one-score games. Georgia blasted the Longhorns 35-10. Texas was held to just 23 rushing yards in the game and in a one-dimensional attack, Arch Manning couldn't make enough big plays to keep Texas in the game.

Alabama's 2024 Bad Loss

A season ago, Alabama took a 24-3 defeat to Oklahoma on November 23rd. That loss was the Tide's third defeat of the season and was a significant factor in keeping Alabama out of last year's College Football Playoff field. Alabama had just 70 yards rushing in the loss and QB Jalen Milroe threw three picks.

SEC CFP Situation

The SEC has four teams that seem likely to nab CFP bids-- Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss. But a fifth bid could come to pass. At the moment, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, each with two losses, might have a cleaner path than Texas. Regardless of how the last two weeks of the regular season finish, Finebaum's "long-shot" prediction is probably accurate.

A tough game in a disappointing season leaves Arch Manning and Texas struggling to stay in the College Football Playoff conversation. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images