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Paul Finebaum names major program with no path to the College Football Playoff

Joe Cox|
ESPN personality Paul Finebaum dropped the hammer on a top program that he says no longer has a way to reach the College Football Playoff.
ESPN personality Paul Finebaum dropped the hammer on a top program that he says no longer has a way to reach the College Football Playoff. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

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Miami (FL) Hurricanes

Week 10 was brutal to several teams, and ESPN personality Paul Finebaum sees the week as knocking a top program out of College Football Playoff contention. While several schools saw their postseason hopes take a beating, perhaps no beating was more severe than the one taken by Miami in a league loss to SMU. In a likely one-CFP bid ACC, Finebaum, in an appearance on ESPN's SportsCenter, says the Hurricanes are out of the picture.

Finebaum's Take

I'm pretty in on that being the worst loss of the day, because Miami just really doesn't have a path back to the Playoffs. Once again, they have everything in their grasp and once again, Mario Cristobal's team finds a way to blow it. Yesterday, they just couldn't hold on. They couldn't make a stop in overtime.... They need to figure out a way to make it to the ACC Championship game, but I don't think they're going to make it either.
Paul Finebaum

Miami's Playoff Problem

With the 26-20 overtime loss to SMU, Miami fell to 2-2 in ACC play. Virginia is 5-0 and both Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh are 5-1 in league play. In addition, Louisville, SMU, and Duke each have just one conference loss. Indeed, it would take a near-miracle to launch the Hurricanes into the ACC title game.

ESPN's FPI dropped the Hurricanes to just a 14.4% shot at a College Football Playoff berth with yesterday's defeat. That's now fourth in the ACC, behind Virginia, Georgia Tech, and Louisville. Left unsaid by Finebaum is that a massive amount of league upsets have all but guaranteed the ACC being a one-bid league. Miami's 1.7% FPI-calculated shot at winning the ACC is the most likely path to the Playoffs.

Last Year's Fade

To Finebaum's point, for a second straight season, everything early shaped up Miami's way, but the final result is likely disappointment. In 2024, the Hurricanes started 9-0. Miami reached No. 4 in the nation, but ended the regular season with losses to Georgia Tech and Syracuse in their final three games. Accordingly, the Hurricanes missed the ACC title game and the CFP and finished their season with a loss to Iowa State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.

2025 Repeat?

The Hurricanes reached No. 2 this season after a 5-0 start, but a loss to Louisville and the loss at SMU in the last three games will knock Miami out of the top ten and likely out of the ACC title game... and potentially, once again the CFP. With four games left, Pittsburgh on the road to end the regular season is probably Miami's best shot at earning back a few style points. But Finebaum thinks it may be too little too late for the Hurricanes.

Cristobal
Mario Cristobal's Miami Hurricanes may have stumbled out of the CFP for a second straight season, according to ESPN's Paul Finebaum. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
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Joe Cox
JOE COX

Joe is a journalist and writer who covers college and professional sports. He has written or co-written over a dozen sports books, including several regional best sellers. His last book, A Fine Team Man, is about Jackie Robinson and the lives he changed. Joe has been a guest on MLB Network, the Paul Finebaum show and numerous other television and radio shows. He has been inside MLB dugouts, covered bowl games and conference tournaments with Saturday Down South and still loves telling the stories of sports past and present.

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