Paul Finebaum names SEC program facing a must-win game to make the playoff

Paul Finebaum said one SEC contender must win this weekend to remain in the College Football Playoff race.

College football analyst Paul Finebaum believes that if Oklahoma football loses to Alabama this weekend, the Sooners would be eliminated from the playoff race. | Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

It’s a defining weekend for college football, and few games carry more weight than Oklahoma’s trip to Tuscaloosa. The matchup between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Alabama Crimson Tide brings together two of the sport’s historic powers, each chasing a College Football Playoff berth that feels within reach yet precariously close to slipping away.

Oklahoma, at 7-2, enters as a double-digit underdog against an Alabama team ranked No. 4 and undefeated at home under head coach Kalen DeBoer. Last season, Oklahoma shocked the Tide 24-3 in Norman, a win that effectively ended Alabama’s playoff hopes. Now, with revenge on their minds, the Crimson Tide aim to return the favor at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

For Oklahoma, the road challenge could define Brent Venables’ tenure. The Sooners’ defense ranks seventh nationally, but their offense will need to find rhythm behind quarterback John Mateer. Meanwhile, Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has emerged as a Heisman contender, guiding one of the country’s most balanced attacks. The stakes are simple. Win, and Oklahoma stays alive. Lose, and as ESPN’s Paul Finebaum put it, the playoff conversation ends.

Paul Finebaum Says Oklahoma Must Beat Alabama To Stay In Playoff Picture

Appearing on ESPN’s Get Up Wednesday, college football analyst Paul Finebaum laid out the scenario bluntly. “We know right now that Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M, Ole Miss seem to be locks. Texas. Oklahoma beats Alabama, then they're under consideration. If they lose that game Saturday, they're gone,” Finebaum said. “And well, there’s one more team to think about, and that’s Vanderbilt. Yes, I said it. Vanderbilt could end up 10-2 with a last weekend win at Tennessee. They’ll be on the bubble.”

Finebaum’s comments underscored the razor-thin margin Oklahoma faces. The Sooners have one of the nation’s top defenses, allowing just 14.1 points per game, but have struggled with turnovers and penalties, ranking near the bottom nationally in both categories. That inefficiency has cost them in close games, and against Alabama’s disciplined, opportunistic team, ranking eighth nationally in turnover margin, it could prove decisive.

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) will need to be at his best to bring down Alabama football in Week 12. | Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Alabama’s offense, led by Simpson and wide receiver Germie Bernard, averages more than 32 points per game, while its defense has surrendered just 17.2. Oklahoma’s ability to limit explosive plays and capitalize on mistakes will determine whether Venables can deliver the program’s biggest road win in years.

The Sooners will face Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.