SEC Program Hit With Reality Check After $1.6 Million QB Declares for NFL Draft

Following a legend is a difficult task. No matter how much talent a player has, standing in the shoes of an illustrious predecessor can be a humbling task. For every Steve Young lurking behind a Joe Montana, there's a Mac Jones following after Tom Brady.

In fact, college football writer Stewart Mandel recently pointed out on SEC team that he sees likely taking a step backward in 2026. It's not because the team's new QB lacks for talent-- no, he's an elite national recruit. But as a freshman, can he follow a Heisman Trophy runner-up? Can anyone?

Sure, Mandel argues, Vanderbilt pulled off a recruiting coup in keeping five-star QB Jared Curtis at home. Curtis had committed to Georgia early in the recruiting process, but the Commodores were able to flip his commitment late in the season leading up to Early Signing Day and signed their top-ranked prep QB ever. But all is not roses for the Commodores.

True Frosh Struggles for Even Talented QBs?

Mandel writes, "He [Curtis] will be [Diego] Pavia's presumed successor this fall. But it's rare for a true freshman to come into any offense and excel from Day 1. See Michigan's Bryce Underwood last season." Mandel is still optimistic for the future of Vanderbilt football, but writes, "they will almost certainly take a step back in production at QB next season."

Indeed, Pavia was electric for the Commodores in 2025, leading the program to its first ever 10-win season and barely missing the College Football Playoff. The QB with a $1.6 million NIL valuation from On3Sports passed for 3,539 yards and 29 touchdowns while rushing for another 862 yards and 10 more scores on the ground. Pavia had an elite season that saw him finish second in the Heisman Trophy vote to Indiana's Fernando Mendoza. But now he's hoping to be picked in the NFL Draft.

Curtis, as the presumed top QB in the 2026 recruiting class, impressed observers in his prep career in Nashville. But Mandel's point remains. A season ago, Bryce Underwood was the top prep QB as an incoming freshman. In 2025, he passed for 2,428 yards and 11 touchdowns against nine interceptions for Michigan. That left him 12th of the 17 qualifiying Big Ten QBs in quarterback rating, behind such non-luminaries as Penn State freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer and Michigan State freshman Alessio Milivojevic. Not brilliant returns so far for Underwood and Michigan.

If Michigan struggled to put enough talent around Underwood to succeed as a true frosh, there's reason to fear the same issue at Vanderbilt. Pavia was the sort of dual-threat game changer who could thrive despite some personnel mismatches. Expecting the same level of play from a true freshman is asking for a rare performance from young Jared Curtis.