Six college football programs under the most pressure in Week 13

Oregon and coach Dan Lanning have their College Football Playoff hopes on the line Saturday at home vs. USC. | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

There are only two games on the Week 13 college football schedule matching up ranked teams, but those aren't the only ones carrying major College Football Playoff ramifications or other significant stakes.

We break down the six college football teams under the most pressure this weekend, including both ends of the Big Ten showdown between No. 15 USC and No. 7 Oregon, as well as No. 8 Oklahoma facing another hurdle with No. 22 Missouri.

(All point spreads via ESPN Bet. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.)

1. Oregon

The No. 7-ranked Ducks (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) control their path to a CFP berth if they win out Saturday at home against No. 15 USC (8-2, 6-1) and then on the road at Washington next week, but Oregon has looked more vulnerable this year than its 2024 team that ran through the regular season and conference championship game undefeated.

Oregon lost its biggest duel at home to Indiana (30-20) and needed a game-winning field goal drive in the final minutes to escape on the road at Iowa (18-16).

That stands as the Ducks' only win over a team in the latest CFP rankings, though the selection committee is apparently still weighting Oregon's September win at Penn State despite the Nittany Lions' subsequent freefall.

The point being, Oregon has a rather thin top-10 resume that falls apart quickly if it loses to USC, and if the Trojans win, they would position themselves as the third Big Ten team vying for CFP exclusion. That may well be all the conference gets this year.

This is a huge game for coach Dan Lanning and his program, especially as 10.5-point favorites at home.

Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

2. USC

After two down seasons, the USC fan base has grown frustrated by Lincoln Riley delivering underwhelming results as one of the highest-paid coaches in college football. Riley and the No. 15 Trojans have a real chance to change that narrative entirely.

While there are no guarantees, it would sure be hard to keep out a potentially 10-2 blue-blood program with a top-10 road win at Oregon, wins over ranked Michigan and Iowa teams and its lone losses on the road at ranked Notre Dame and Illinois (by 2 points on a late field goal).

Of course, that's all just a hypothetical right now. USC has to pull the upset in Eugene, Oregon, on Saturday and then beat rival UCLA to close out the schedule.

And, well, Riley hasn't shown much in the way of winning Big Ten road games. Since the Trojans joined the conference last season, their only Big Ten road wins were over crosstown rival UCLA last year and at Purdue and Nebraska this year, while USC lost at Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland and Washington last year and that game at Illinois this season, blowing late leads in all of those defeats.

If the Trojans win out and make the CFP, the perception of Riley and his program will change, especially with the No. 1-ranked recruiting class in place.

Lose this one, though, especially if it's not close, and not much has really changed. USC would be 8-3, still with a chance at a 10-win season with a bowl victory, but it would have lost its three toughest road games, including to rival Notre Dame (and pseudo rival Oregon, which has been a thorn in the Trojans' side for years now).

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) throws against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Oklahoma defeated Alabama 23-21. | Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

3. Oklahoma

Sure, Oklahoma was the talk of college football last week after its 23-21 upset win at then-No. 4 Alabama, but that was last week.

The No. 8 Sooners (8-2, 4-2 SEC) don't really have any margin for error in their CFP quest, as no three-loss team earned an at-large berth last year and the field of contenders for those coveted 12 spots is as crowded as ever.

To ensure their spot on the playoff bracket, the Sooners have to beat No. 23 Missouri (7-3, 3-3) on Saturday and then take care of LSU at home next week.

What wasn't talked about enough in that win over Alabama is that Oklahoma actually got outgained 406 yards to 212 by the Crimson Tide, and it was three forced turnovers (including a pick-6, a costly fumbled punt return that led to a quick Oklahoma touchdown and a pivotal fumble deep in Alabama territory to set up a field goal) that swung the game.

That's all well and good, but no team can count on three game-swinging defensive plays each week. The Sooners will need more from their offense after QB John Mateer passed for just 138 yards and they rushed for only 74 as a team, albeit in part due to short fields and the defensive TD.

Missouri hasn't beaten a ranked opponent all season and is a 6.5-point underdog Saturday, but it was competitive in losses to Alabama and at Vanderbilt, and it just had running back Ahmad Hardy rush for 300 yards and 3 TDs vs. Mississippi State last week.

Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia (2) celebrates their victory over Auburn after the game at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Saturday, Nov. 8, 2025. | Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

4. Vanderbilt

At No. 14 in the latest CFP rankings, Vanderbilt (8-2, 4-2 SEC) is on the outside of the playoff picture looking in as of now despite being one of six SEC teams with two or fewer losses.

That means the Commodores are going to need some help (like, say, aforementioned Oklahoma losing) while also taking care of their own business -- and maybe doing so with some extra style points.

Vanderbilt hosts Kentucky (5-5, 2-5) on Saturday as an 8.5-point favorite. The Wildcats were at the bottom of the SEC standings, but they've won three straight games (including conference wins over Auburn and Florida).

Diego Pavia and Co. need a convincing win Saturday and then a victory at Tennessee next week to at least stay in the CFP conversation.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King (10) passes the ball during the first half against the Boston College Eagles at Alumni Stadium. | Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

5. Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech (9-1, 6-1 ACC) is the lowest-ranked one-loss team in the CFP rankings at No. 16, meaning the Yellow Jackets either have to win the ACC or win out vs. Pittsburgh and No. 4 Georgia to have any shot at a playoff berth.

The knock on Georgia Tech, of course, is that its best wins are over Clemson, Wake Forest and Duke, none of which are ranked. The Yellow Jackets have also looked very vulnerable the last two weeks, losing 48-36 at NC State and then needing to rally for a 36-34 win over lowly Boston College.

Pittsburgh (7-3, 5-1) was ranked last week before getting rolled over by Notre Dame, but the Panthers are a formidable team and are 5-1 since turning to true freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel.

Georgia Tech and star dual-threat QB Haynes King are 2.5-point favorites in this matchup, but Pittsburgh may actually be the better team here, and a loss would end the Yellow Jackets' hopes for an ACC title and playoff breakthrough.

BYU Cougars quarterback Bear Bachmeier (middle) celebrates scoring a touchdown against the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs with tight end Carsen Ryan (20) and offensive lineman Kyle Sfarcioc (64) during the second quarter at LaVell Edwards Stadium. | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

6. BYU

At No. 11 in the CFP rankings, BYU (9-1, 6-1 Big 12) also clearly needs to win out to keep its playoff hopes alive.

That would also mean a likely rematch with Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game after the Red Raiders won 29-7 when the teams met two weeks ago. But first things first.

BYU goes on the road at Cincinnati (7-3, 5-2) on Saturday, facing a Bearcats team that was previously ranked and had won seven straight games before back-to-back losses to Utah and Arizona. Cincinnati may be out of the playoff picture and conference race now, but it should be motivated enough to avoid a true late-season freefall that would spoil all the gains it made this year

BYU is listed as just a 2.5-point favorite on the road against a still very capable Cincinnati team led by veteran QB Brendan Sorsby (2,218 passing yards, 22 TDs, 4 INTs, 483 rushing yards, 9 TDs).