Texas' College Football Playoff chances revealed amid Texas A&M game

Texas has not quite had the season that met the team's preseason expectations, but Arch Manning and company are still knocking on the door of the College Football Playoff. The question is whether it will be too little, too late for Texas to make the CFP bracket.

Texas cannot win the SEC and would need an at-large spot to make the postseason. Prior to the team's regular-season win over Texas A&M, the Longhorns sat at No. 16 in the College Football Playoff rankings.

The challenge is Texas has three losses to Ohio State, Florida and Georgia this season. Two of these defeats were to likely playoff teams, but the Longhorns lost 35-10 to the Dawgs. The team's loss to Florida still looms as well.

Steve Sarkisian is lobbying hard for Texas CFP berth

“We got a really good football team. It would be a disservice to our sport if this team’s not a playoff team when we went and scheduled that nonconference game (Ohio State). Because if we’re a 10-2 team that’s not a question.” pic.twitter.com/m5chIPojhZ
— Trey Wallace (@TreyWallace_) November 29, 2025

Let's dive into Texas' College Football Playoff chances.

A win over Texas A&M still means Texas has an 89% chance to miss the College Football Playoff

Despite the win against Texas A&M, Texas still faces an uphill battle to make the College Football Playoff. ESPN's playoff predictor puts the Longhorns' playoff chances at just 11% following the win against the Aggies.

To put it more pessimistically, Texas has an 89% chance to miss the postseason, even with the victory. The odds factor in the reality that Texas really needs to climb up to No. 10 in the rankings.

As a reminder, the highest ranked Group of Six team is guaranteed to make the College Football Playoff. Additionally, the ACC champion could secure one of the other final seeds as one of the four highest ranked conference champions.

Texas will get a major update on Tuesday when the next CFP rankings are revealed, showing how far the Longhorns climbed. The College Football Playoff bracket will be unveiled on Dec. 7 following the conference championship matchups.

Texas is rooting for chaos during college football's rivalry weekend

The odds show Texas needs absolute chaos to have a remote chance to make the postseason. Texas will be rooting against teams like Alabama, Michigan and Vanderbilt to lose their rivalry matchups this weekend.

The more the teams ranked above the Longhorns lose, the better Texas' chances are to crash the party. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian continues to point to the program's decision to schedule their season opener against Ohio State as a major defense for the Longhorns' three losses.

The challenge is the team's loss to Florida is less than flattering. ESPN's Heather Dinich labels Texas making the playoff as "unlikely," despite the impressive win over Texas A&M.

"While Texas now has arguably the best win in the country, it probably won't be enough to catapult it into the top-10 as a three-loss team," Dinich wrote on Friday. "Even with some upsets above them, it's unlikely Texas would get higher than No. 12."