Texas vs. Michigan prediction: Who wins the Citrus Bowl, and why?

A prestige SEC vs. Big Ten matchup between college football blue bloods gets underway in bowl season as Texas and Michigan face off in the 2025 edition of the Citrus Bowl game.

Both teams come in with nine wins and looking to end the season with double-digit victories, although each roster will be plagued by the usual questions around opt-outs and transfers.

Michigan is undergoing some momentous change after firing head coach Sherrone Moore for cause, but seems to have scored a major coup by bringing on coaching veteran Kyle Whittingham to replace him in 2026 and beyond.

Texas is under proven management with Steve Sarkisian at the helm and Arch Manning returning next season at quarterback, but the SEC hopefuls have some notable departures, as well.

Texas vs. Michigan: What to watch

Texas Longhorns vs. Michigan Wolverines Citrus Bowl football game prediction 2025 — Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

1. Texas Front Pressure vs. Michigan Run Identity

Texas’ defensive line has built momentum with consistent penetration and gap control, setting the tone early by stuffing the run and creating third-and-longs for opponents.

Michigan’s offense thrives on establishing a physical ground game to set up play-action and control the clock, so protecting first-down efficiency will be vital to avoid getting one-dimensional in pass protection.

If Texas wins the line of scrimmage and limits Michigan’s chunk runs, the Wolverines may struggle to sustain drives against a Longhorns secondary that excels in zone coverage.

Conversely, Michigan’s offensive line must anchor against Texas’ speed rushers to maintain balance and wear down the defense over four quarters.

2. Third-Down Versatility and Red-Zone Edge

Both teams feature offenses capable of extending drives, but third-down conversions and red-zone execution often decide bowl outcomes between evenly matched squads.

Texas leverages tempo and schematic wrinkles to create mismatches on third-and-medium, testing Michigan’s discipline in pass rush and coverage rotations.

Michigan counters with a methodical approach, using motion and play-action to freeze defenders and open underneath windows.

The team that better handles these high-leverage spots, converting consistently while clamping down on the opponent, will dictate possession time and build a potentially insurmountable lead.

3. Special Teams Leverage and Fatigue Factors

Special teams precision and depth management could swing field position amid potential opt-out impacts on both rosters.

Kicking reliability, punt coverage, and return decisions gain outsized importance when offenses trade field goals and stalled drives leave little margin for error.

Texas has shown late-season poise in these units, while Michigan’s experience in close games could shine if it flips the field with a big return or forces a turnover on downs.

As rotations thin in the fourth quarter, the side that avoids miscues here maintains momentum in what projects as a tight, physical battle.

Texas vs. Michigan prediction: Who wins?

Line: Texas -6.5, 48.5

How do you predict bowl games? Between the opt-outs, transfers, and the who-actually-cares factor, anything could potentially go in the non-playoff postseason.

Michigan can run the ball with some power, but will face a credible obstacle in what remains of the Texas front seven, and the Longhorns have more firepower at the skill positions on the perimeters.

College Football HQ picks...

Texas wins 30-20
Covers the spread
And hits the over

How to watch the 2025 Citrus Bowl

When: Wed., Dec. 31
Where: Orlando

Time: 3 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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