College football’s QB market predicted to reach $10 million per season

The NCAA formally suspended its long-standing prohibitions and adopted an interim Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) policy effective July 1, 2021, allowing college athletes to be compensated for endorsements, appearances, personal businesses, and related activities.

When the NIL era first began, top-earning college athletes such as former Alabama quarterback Bryce Young, LSU gymnast Livvy Dunne, and UConn women’s basketball star Paige Bueckers sat near the top of the market, with valuations generally ranging from $1 to $2 million.

Just a few years later, those figures have more than doubled. Texas quarterback Arch Manning now leads the NIL landscape with a valuation of approximately $5.4 million, followed by BYU men’s basketball star AJ Dybantsa ($4.2 million) and Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith ($4.2 million).

The growth isn’t limited to the sport’s biggest names. More than 40 college athletes are now reported to be earning at least $1.5 million annually, and multiple reports suggest that incoming college football freshmen, before taking a single collegiate snap, can command seven-figure NIL packages in their first season on campus.

As dramatic as that growth has been, new projections suggest the market may still be far from its ceiling.

Recently, The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman floated the scenario that “some school (coached by Lane Kiffin) will end up offering a QB $10 million to play in 2027.”

Feldman framed the idea as a bold, speculative prediction, part of a broader set of long-shot takes, but one that reflects the rapid escalation and increasingly aggressive nature of the modern NIL marketplace.

LSU new head coach Lane Kiffin, left, and LSU athletic director Verge Ausberry. — Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU new head coach Lane Kiffin, left, and LSU athletic director Verge Ausberry greet each other at South Stadium Club at Tiger Stadium. | Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

Kiffin left Ole Miss to take the LSU head-coaching job in late November 2025, agreeing to a seven-year, $91 million deal to take over one of the most powerful brands in college football.

Across multiple stops before arriving in Baton Rouge, Kiffin developed a reputation for aggressive offensive scheming, prolific recruiting and transfer-portal activity, and a willingness to leverage NIL resources to assemble competitive rosters quickly, a trend that became especially pronounced during his tenure at Ole Miss.

As for whether a player could realistically approach or even nearly double Manning’s market-topping $5.4 million NIL valuation, it remains possible, though it would almost certainly require a deep-pocketed donor or third-party entity willing to underwrite an unprecedented deal.

LSU and other top programs have already demonstrated significant financial commitment in this space. Reporting has placed LSU’s roster and NIL investment in the $25–30 million range following Kiffin’s arrival, illustrating the institutional capacity to support multiple seven-figure agreements.

Even so, a $10 million NIL package for a single season would represent a clear outlier in the current market and mark a dramatic shift in how college athletes are valued, potentially reshaping incentives around whether top players leave early for the NFL.

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