Alabama vs. Auburn game prediction by ESPN football computer

Iron Bowl week is here, as the 2025 edition of one of college football's best rivalry games kicks off on Saturday with No. 10 Alabama going on the road against unranked Auburn.

Auburn is seeking out bowl eligibility and searching for a new head coach, and can pull off one of the most consequential upsets of the season if they can get one over on the Crimson Tide.

Alabama is seeking contention for the SEC championship and holding on to one of the last spots in the College Football Playoff bracket, with no room for error having already lost two games.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Iron Bowl 2025: Alabama vs. Auburn predictions

Predictably, the Crimson Tide has emerged as the consensus favorite over the Tigers.

Alabama emerged as the outright winner in the majority 73.5 percent of the computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Auburn as the presumptive winner in the remaining 26.5 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Give the Tide a touchdown.

Alabama is projected to be 6.6 points better than Auburn on the same field in both teams' current composition, according to the latest model forecasts.

That would be enough for the Crimson Tide to cover the spread, as Alabama is a 6.5 point favorite against Auburn, according to the game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 78.3 percent of all games and hit 42 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

All odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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