Alabama vs. South Carolina prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Alabama vs. South Carolina by an analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

Alabama vs. South Carolina prediction 2025 | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Alabama and South Carolina reunite in college football’s Week 9 action this coming Saturday, with these SEC hopefuls heading in apparently-different directions.

South Carolina dipped to 1-4 in SEC competition following a loss to Oklahoma last weekend and has been unable to replicate last season’s success on the back of some defensive failures and an inability to generate much consistency on offense.

A different story for Alabama, which rebounded from its Week 1 loss to win six-straight games, including four in a row against ranked SEC opponents, and getting generational play from quarterback Ty Simpson, who has just 1 turnover all year.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Alabama vs. South Carolina prediction

As might be expected, the models lean heavily towards the streaking Crimson Tide over the reeling Gamecocks.

Alabama is a pronounced favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in 82.2 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves South Carolina as the presumptive winner in the remaining 17.8 percent of sims.

In total, the Crimson Tide came out on top in 16,440 of the simulations of the game, while the Gamecocks edged out Alabama in the other 3,400 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? It’ll be a double-digit win for the Tide, but not enough to cover the spread.

Alabama is projected to be 10.8 points better than South Carolina on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

But that wouldn’t be enough to cover the line, as the Crimson Tide are 12.5 point favorites against the Gamecocks, according to the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Alabama vs. South Carolina future projections

Alabama paces all SEC teams in the computer’s latest 136-team college football rankings, projected to be 22.9 points better than an average opponent.

The model favors the Tide to make the College Football Playoff in a resounding 89.4 percent of the computer’s simulations of the postseason going forward.

It’s also the favorite to win the SEC championship in 57.1 percent of sims.

The model forecasts Alabama will win 10.7 games this season.

South Carolina sits in another world, ranking third-worst in the SEC rankings this week, projected to win 5.1 games with a 29.3 percent shot at being bowl eligible.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 71.4 percent of all games and hit exactly 50 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.