Alabama vs. Vanderbilt prediction: Who wins, and why?

Vanderbilt looks to make it two straight against Alabama after last year's monster upset. Here's our final prediction for this Week 6 college football game.

Alabama vs. Vanderbilt prediction 2025 / Will McLelland-Imagn Images

Alabama and Vanderbilt meet again almost exactly one year to the day after playing one of college football’s most historic upsets. Here’s what you should watch for in the matchup, with our final prediction for the game.

Vanderbilt had never won a game against an AP No. 1 ranked opponent until last year, when it knocked off Alabama in an upset for the ages, and this season has proved that team was not exactly a one-year wonder.

Vandy is 5-0 for the first time since 2008 and the second time in 80 years, has won its first five games by 20-plus points for the first time since 1915, also the last time it scored 50-plus points in consecutive games, and has scored the ninth-most points in the first five games of a season in SEC history.

That game put a giant bullseye on Kalen DeBoer in his first season as Alabama’s head coach, one that grew larger after losing the 2025 season opener at Florida State, but some of that pressure eased after the Crimson Tide beat Georgia on the road last week.

Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia leads college football’s fourth-ranked scoring offense, averaging 49 points per game, against an Alabama defense that will be the toughest test for the ‘Dores yet.

Saturday also marks the first time since 1937 that Alabama and Vanderbilt will meet on the same football field when both are ranked in the AP poll.

What can we expect as the Commodores hit the road against the Crimson Tide?

Here’s what you should watch for as Alabama and Vanderbilt meet in this Week 6 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Alabama vs. Vanderbilt prediction: What to watch

Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

1. Red zone efficiency

Vanderbilt is extremely efficient when working inside the opponents’ 20-yard line, coming away with points on 96.6 percent of opportunities, and their 28 scores from inside the red zone are the second-most of any team in college football.

Alabama’s red zone defense has surrendered points on over 83 percent of opponents’ chances in scoring position, but that number belies how dominant this defense has fared, because it’s only allowed 5 touchdowns there all year, the second-fewest in FBS.

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2. On the ground

Vanderbilt’s backs carved out 166 yards against the Tide defense in last year’s upset and they should present this alignment with another credible test on the ground in 2025.

Vandy ranks first among SEC teams by averaging 6.49 yards per carry and 18 rushing touchdowns and is second in the conference with 1,117 total rushing yards and averaging more than 223 yards per game.

That dominance extends to when the Commodores defend against opposing rushers, ranking third-best in the SEC and among the top-dozen nationally by surrendering just over 79 yards each time out.

Alabama could definitely improve when it comes to running the ball and defending the run. It ranks third-worst in the SEC in both categories.

3. Turnovers

Alabama comes into the game as one of three teams nationally and the only Power Four team yet to have a turnover this season, and its plus-seven turnover margin is second in the country after Louisiana Tech and North Texas.

It’s also one of three Power Four teams yet to throw an interception, joining BYU and Auburn, as Ty Simpson commands the nation’s 10th ranked passing attack.

Vanderbilt ranks fourth nationally in total giveaways on defense, taking the ball away 9 times, with just 5 turnovers so far.

Diego Pavia already has 3 interceptions, only one fewer than he had in 12 games last season, and his 2.4 percent TD/INT ratio is twice what it was last year. Alabama’s defense could potentially rattle him in the pocket and force him into mistakes to curtail drives.

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Who is favored?

Alabama is a 12.5 point favorite against Vanderbilt, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering the weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 56.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -490 and for Vanderbilt at +380 to win outright.

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Alabama vs. Vanderbilt prediction: Who wins?

Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Kalen DeBoer had a target on his back to say the least after losing the first game of the season against unranked Florida State, but the Crimson Tide’s performance in the three games since then, especially at Georgia, shows this team is finally forging a positive identity.

The trendy pick here is that Vanderbilt will make this a game. Since everyone was so stunned by what happened last season, and given how well the Commodores have looked so far, analysts want to look smart by projecting a close result here.

But the change in venue, the newfound focus on this particular matchup where it had never existed before, and the momentum coming out of last week’s victory should be enough to push the Crimson Tide over the line.

Not without a fight, as Pavia and the Dores’ expert skill players will find some angles around the Alabama mid-field tacklers, and the continued absence of a credible ground threat is worrisome as we move into October football and the meat of the SEC schedule.

Ty Simpson has proven capable of putting the offense on his back, but it can’t all be him all the time going forward, even if he does enough to pass this early test.

College Football HQ picks...

• Alabama wins 37-23
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over

More: Alabama vs. Vanderbilt score prediction by expert model

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How to watch Alabama vs. Vanderbilt

When: Sat., Oct. 4
Where: Alabama

Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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