Alabama vs. Wisconsin score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Alabama vs. Wisconsin in this Week 3 college football game from an expert model that projects scores.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Wisconsin Badgers score prediction 2025 | David Leong-Imagn Images

Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for Alabama vs. Wisconsin as college football’s Week 3 action brings us this SEC vs. Big Ten matchup from an expert analytical model that projects scores.

Alabama is looking to avoid another letdown after a two-touchdown loss at Florida State in the season opener before rebounding in a 73-0 win over UL Monroe last weekend, hoping to gain some confidence against this Big Ten opponent before moving on to the more difficult portion of its schedule in SEC play.

Some good news for the Crimson Tide will be the apparent return of wide receiver Ryan Williams, who was unable to play last week after suffering a concussion in the Week 1 game and was still in protocol by the time last Saturday’s game kicked off.

Wisconsin has outscored opponents 59 to 10, and backup quarterback Danny O’Neil leads the team with 403 passing yards with 4 touchdowns while completing 76 percent of his pass attempts in place of Billy Edwards, Jr., who is dealing with a lower body injury.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Crimson Tide and Badgers meet on the same field in this SEC vs. Big Ten matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Alabama and Wisconsin compare in this Week 3 college football game.

Alabama vs. Wisconsin score prediction

As might be expected in this situation, the models are going with the SEC team in this matchup against its Big Ten counterpart this weekend.

SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat Wisconsin by a projected score of 33 to 16 and will win the game by an expected margin of 17.1 points in the process.

The model forecasts the Crimson Tide will win the game with 86 percent likelihood.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 50-48 against the spread with a 51.0 win percentage.

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How to pick the game

The bookies are going with the Crimson Tide over the Badgers in this non-conference clash.

Alabama is a 21.5 point favorite against Wisconsin, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points in the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -3000 and for Wisconsin at +1200 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Wisconsin +21.5
• Alabama to win -3000
• Bet over 45.5 points

A slight majority of bettors expect the Badgers to make this a little interesting on the road in SEC country, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Wisconsin is getting 58 percent of bets to either defeat Alabama outright in an upset, or more likely, to keep the final margin to 3 touchdowns or fewer in a loss.

The other 42 percent of wagers project the Crimson Tide will get past 3 touchdowns and beat the Badgers by more than 21 points this weekend.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models are also siding with the Crimson Tide over the Badgers in this SEC vs. Big Ten matchup.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Alabama is the big majority over the Badgers, coming out ahead in the vast majority 88.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Wisconsin as the presumptive winner in the remaining 11.1 percent of sims.

What does that look like on the scoreboard when all is said and done.

After simulating the game 20,000 times, Alabama is projected to be 15.7 points better than Wisconsin on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.5 percent of all games and hit 48.4 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

More: ESPN computer predicts Alabama vs. Wisconsin game winner

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How to watch Alabama vs. Wisconsin

When: Sat., Sept. 13
Where: Alabama

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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