Brian Kelly Sends College Football Upset Alert Ahead of Major Week 5 Clash

Former LSU and Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly picked No. 25 Missouri to upset No. 8 Florida on Saturday, splitting from three fellow CBS Sports analysts who all sided with the unbeaten Gators in Columbia.

Kelly made the call on CBS Sports Network's Inside College Football. "This season, to me, feels like each week a new team shows up," Kelly said. "I think Missouri is ready in this game at home and pulls off the upset against a Florida team that's heavily favored."

Brian Kelly's Missouri upset case

Brian Kelly Sends College Football Upset Alert Ahead of Major Week 5 Clash — Missouri Tigers head coach Eli Drinkwitz reacts toward a referee during the first quarter against the Mississippi State Bulldogs | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Kelly also said the weather could help the Tigers. "Missouri needs it to drop into the 50s in terms of weather," Kelly said. "Nice and cool. A cold day." But Saturday's forecast in Columbia calls for 72 degrees with no chance of rain.

Florida hasn't won a true road game against a ranked team since a 13-6 win at No. 23 Mississippi State in 2018. The Gators have also lost three of their last four trips to Columbia, and Florida head coach Jon Sumrall raised that point when asked about Missouri's homecoming.

"The last four trips we've gone to Missouri, we've lost three of them," Sumrall said. "So if we think it's going to be a freaking cakewalk, I don't care if it's homecoming or whatever, we're in for a rude awakening."

Why did CBS analysts pick Florida?

CBS Sports analysts Brian Jones, Aaron Taylor and Rick Neuheisel all took Florida, and the Gators' ground game drove most of that thinking. Mississippi State running back Fluff Bothwell ran for 122 yards in last week's 31-24 Bulldogs win, and Jones noted it was the first 100-yard game the Tigers allowed this season.

Florida running back Jadan Baugh ran for 142 yards and three touchdowns, and Duke Clark added 126 yards in a 52-28 win over then-No. 4 Ole Miss. The Gators own college football's best offense by several advanced metrics.

"This team is coming in with Duke Clark and Jadan Baugh, who both went over 100," Jones said. "They had 302 yards rushing versus Ole Miss. I think this Tigers defense is a little stiffer than the Ole Miss version, but I'm going to go with Florida on the road."

Taylor questioned whether Missouri belongs in the AP Top 25 at all. "Going back to 2024, they've been ranked 32 of the 39 weeks, but are only 1-9 against ranked teams in that time," Taylor said.

Neuheisel backed the same formula as Jones. "Defenses and run games travel," he said. Alluding to his belief that Florida will deliver on the road.

Austin Simmons and Missouri's passing game

Neuheisel's bigger worry was Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons. "I'm not sure that I can trust Austin Simmons yet," Neuheisel said. "I think he's shown flashes of brilliance, but consistency, maybe not so much."

Jones pushed back by pointing to Simmons' 11 touchdown passes and zero interceptions. The Ole Miss transfer threw for 295 yards and three scores at Mississippi State, and wide receiver Cayden Lee caught 11 passes for 156 yards and two touchdowns.

That passing attack lines up with a weak spot for the Gators. Florida's pass defense ranks 94th nationally, so Simmons and Lee may carry the load if Missouri wants to back up the former LSU coach's pick.

Neuheisel still took the Gators, saying, "I'm going to take Florida on the road in a close one."

Florida at Missouri kicks off Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC from Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium.

.@CoachBrianKelly, @JonesN4mo, @AaronTaylorCFB and @CoachNeuheisel give their picks for No. 8 Florida vs. No. 25 Missouri. 👀

Will the Gators stay hot? 🤔#ICF pic.twitter.com/Zm1QwKrQit
— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) September 30, 2026

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