Greg McElroy Picks Florida-Missouri Winner in High-Stakes Week 5 SEC Showdown

College football analyst Greg McElroy has made his pick for No. 8 Florida at No. 25 Missouri. The ESPN host sees running back Jadan Baugh and the Gators' ground game as the biggest problem for a Tigers team that just lost its conference opener.

On his Always College Football podcast, McElroy picked Florida to win 31-24 on Saturday, Oct. 3, at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC. "Florida has a deeper offense," he said, "and Missouri's red zone issues, that's something that's difficult to overcome in this game."

Florida jumped from No. 21 to No. 8 in the Top 25 poll after a 52-28 win over No. 4 Ole Miss. Missouri slid from No. 19 to No. 25 after it gave up the last 14 points in a 31-24 loss at Mississippi State.

"So, for Missouri, this is got-to-have-it mode, given what's coming up here in the next few weeks," McElroy said.

McElroy has liked this Florida team since the summer, when he said the Gators could play spoiler in the 2026 Playoff race.

How can Missouri slow Jadan Baugh?

Greg McElroy Picks Florida-Missouri Winner in High-Stakes Week 5 SEC Showdown — Florida Gators running back Jadan Baugh (13) reacts after a play against the Mississippi Rebels | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Baugh, a junior from Atlanta, has 600 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns through four games. He ran for 142 yards and three scores against Ole Miss. That gave him five straight 100-yard games, a streak only Emmitt Smith and Fred Taylor had put together at Florida.

McElroy called the Missouri run defense "Missouri's best unit against Florida's best player." The Tigers have stopped 45 runs at or behind the line of scrimmage, which he said ranks in the top six in the country.

Quarterback Aaron Philo has completed 72% of his passes for 917 yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions. Still, Florida throws only 26 times per game, which McElroy said ranks 103rd.

"If Missouri can somehow hold Jadan Baugh under three yards a carry, then it goes squarely on Philo's shoulders, and we haven't seen it just yet," McElroy said.

Florida's secondary faces Missouri passing attack

Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons has 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions, according to McElroy, and wide receiver Cayden Lee had 156 receiving yards at Mississippi State.

McElroy sees that as the biggest mismatch. He said Florida gives up about 250 passing yards per game and that Ole Miss threw for 298 against the Gators.

"So, if Missouri is at, say, 300 passing yards, they have a real chance to potentially win the game," McElroy said.

Florida may also get its top receiver back. Vernell Brown III leads the team with 17 catches for 271 yards, and Florida head coach Jon Sumrall said the knee injury Brown suffered against Ole Miss is a mild strain.

Who wins Florida vs. Missouri?

McElroy picked the Gators by seven. He noted Sumrall is 36-1 when his team makes more red zone trips than the other team, and he said Florida scores touchdowns on five of every six trips inside the 20.

"I just think Florida has way too many ways to deliver the big haymaker and the knockout blow with how they run the football," McElroy said.

A Florida win would move the Gators to 5-0 overall and 3-0 in conference play, while a loss would drop Missouri to 0-2 in the league.

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