Cincinnati vs. Utah score prediction by expert football model

Another consequential matchup in the competitive Big 12 kicks off under the lights this weekend in one of three ranked-on-ranked matchups in college football, as No. 17 Cincinnati faces off against No. 24 Utah on Saturday night.

Cincinnati is perfect in conference play and sitting right behind undefeated BYU, the current Big 12 leader, who it will play in a couple weeks.

Utah has less margin for error at 3-2 in conference competition, but averages 48 points per game in its Big 12 victories and has dominated those games by 37 points on average.

What do the analytics predict as the Bearcats hit the road against the Utes in this Big 12 clash?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Cincinnati and Utah compare in this Week 10 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Cincinnati vs. Utah score prediction

For all the Bearcats have done up to now, the model is siding more strongly with the Utes to continue their win streak and throw some more chaos into the Big 12 title picture.

SP+ predicts that Utah will defeat Cincinnati by a projected score of 31 to 22 and will win the game by an expected margin of 9.1 points in the process.

The model gives the Utes a strong 72 percent chance of outright victory playing at home.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 234-230 against the spread with a 50.4 win percentage. Last week, it was 24-29 (45.3%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets are even more confident in the Utes to dominate, listing them as double-digit favorites against the Bearcats.

Utah is a 10.5 point favorite against Cincinnati, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering this weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Utah at -370 and for Cincinnati at +295 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Injury concerns define both rosters heading into this matchup. For Utah, a question of whether Devon Dampier makes his return at quarterback, or if Byrd Ficklin gets the nod again, as he did in a 53-7 drubbing against Colorado last week.

And for Cincinnati, the likely absence of lead rusher Evan Pryor, putting more pressure on Brendan Sorsby to carry the day throwing the football against a Utah defense that is 7th in FBS against the pass.

Utah is also quite good at getting to the quarterback, ranking second among Big 12 teams with 25 sacks in eight games, but Cincinnati is superb at protecting theirs, allowing just 2 sacks all year.

This line is too wide given how well these teams appear to match up on paper, especially as Cincinnati is 6-2 against the spread this year. But the Utes look a little stronger in the trenches right now and the Bearcats are very average against the pass.

Cincinnati +10.5
Utah to win -370
Bet under 55.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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