ESPN computer predicts Clemson vs. Georgia Tech winner, and smells an upset

Clemson and Georgia Tech meet in this ACC opener for both teams in college football’s Week 3 action on Saturday with plenty already on the line. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from a model that simulates games and picks winners.

Clemson is already down to a surprise 1-1 mark after its season-opening loss at home to LSU and can ill afford any more slip-ups with the selection committee watching its every move early in the season.

Even last week’s victory against Troy took some doing, as the visitors marched out to a 16-0 lead at Death Valley, requiring Cade Klubnik and the offense to make a comeback to avoid complete catastrophe.

Georgia Tech is 2-0 after taking out Colorado on the road and smashing up Gardner-Webb, but with a sudden change at quarterback, as Aaron Philo stepped in for starter Haynes King as he is now dealing with a lower body injury.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Clemson vs. Georgia Tech prediction

Look out, Clemson. The models smell an upset in the making.

That’s right, Georgia Tech is the consensus favorite to come out of Saturday’s game against Clemson as the winner, based on the latest projections of the matchup.

Georgia Tech came out the winner in the majority 55.9 percent of the computer’s 20,000 most recent simulations of the game against its ACC rival.

That leaves Clemson as the presumptive winner in the remaining 44.1 percent of sims.

In total, the Yellow Jackets came out ahead in 11,180 of the computer’s updated simulations of the contest, while Clemson edged out Georgia Tech in the other 8,820 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? This one will be very close in Atlanta.

Georgia Tech is projected to be just 1.3 points better than Clemson on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would constitute an upset on the sportsbooks this weekend, too.

That’s because Clemson is the 3.5 point favorite against Georgia Tech, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Clemson at -162 and for Georgia Tech at +134 to win outright.

Where the money is going

A slight majority of bets expect the Yellow Jackets will give the Tigers a real challenge this weekend, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Georgia Tech is getting 56 percent of bets to either upset Clemson outright at home, or to at least keep the final margin to a field goal or less in a defeat.

The other 44 percent of wagers project Clemson will beat the Yellow Jackets by at least four points and avoid a 1-2 start.

Clemson vs. Georgia Tech future projections

Georgia Tech has improved its stature among ACC teams this week, according to the index computer metrics.

It moved into second-place with a 15.6 percent chance to win the conference championship, behind only leader Miami at 28.1 percent.

Tech emerged as the No. 31 overall team in the computer’s 136-team college football rankings, projected to be 9.2 points better than an average opponent this season.

The models forecast the Yellow Jackets will win 8.8 games this season.

That’s better than Clemson, which came out with a win projection of just 7.5 games and debuted in the No. 32 position in the national rankings, just behind the Jackets.

Clemson is fourth in the ACC Championship race, with a 12.8 percent chance to defend its conference title, according to the computers.

That adds up to a meager 11.2 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff, and just an 0.3 percent shot to play for the national championship.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.5 percent of all games and hit 48.4 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Clemson vs. Georgia Tech prediction

Where the money is going

Clemson vs. Georgia Tech future projections

College Football Power Index

How good is the prediction model?

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