Clemson vs. Georgia Tech score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Clemson vs. Georgia Tech in this Week 3 college football game from an expert model that projects scores.

Clemson Tigers vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets score prediction 2025 | Ken Ruinard / USA Today Network South Carolina / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Here is the latest prediction for Clemson vs. Georgia Tech from an expert analytical model that projects scores as college football’s Week 3 action gets underway.

Clemson is just 1-1 after a key season-opening loss against LSU at home and following a wobbly come-from-behind victory against Troy, which built a 16-0 lead at Memorial Stadium before Cade Klubnik and the offense clawed their way back into that game.

It’s an early hit to their College Football Playoff hopes, but there’s plenty of time, if less margin for error, to prove to the selectors that they belong in the final dozen as they look ahead to the rest of the season heading into this ACC opener.

This weekend could prove to be a challenge, though, going on the road against an undefeated Georgia Tech team at 2-0 that has looked efficient on the offensive side of the ball in wins over Colorado and Gardner-Webb.

But with a caveat, as starting quarterback Haynes King missed last week’s game with a lower body injury, although his replacement, Aaron Philo, has looked the part, hitting 75 percent of his pass attempts over the weekend.

What do the analytics suggest for when Clemson and Georgia Tech step onto the same field in this ACC opener?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Clemson and Georgia Tech compare in this Week 3 college football game.

Clemson vs. Georgia Tech score prediction

Atlanta could be Upset City this weekend.

Yes, the models are suggesting that the Yellow Jackets could do some real damage against the preseason ACC title favorites and put them below .500 in this game.

SP+ predicts that Georgia Tech will defeat Clemson. But here’s where it gets tricky. The computer model technically forecasts what appears to be a score of 28 to 28.

But the final expected point margin slants slightly in the Jackets’ favor, as they’re projected to finish the game 0.6 points, or simply 1 point if we’re rounding up, better than the Tigers on the same field.

In terms of outright victory? The model gives Tech a slight 51 percent advantage outright.

That translates into a very narrow statistical edge for Georgia Tech over Clemson, and suggests the game is so evenly matched on paper that the final result could come down to something other than mere talent.

Field position, a big play, turnover luck, or adjustments made on one side or the other than can’t be factored into the model could play an outsized part in determining the result.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 50-48 against the spread with a 51.0 win percentage.

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How to pick the game

The sportsbooks are still naming the Tigers as the favorite over the Yellow Jackets coming into the ACC opener this Saturday, however.

Clemson remains a 3.5 point favorite against Georgia Tech, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 51.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Clemson at -154 and for Georgia Tech at +128 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Georgia Tech +3.5
• Tech to win +128
• Bet over 51.5 points

A slight majority of bets also expect the Yellow Jackets will give the Tigers a real challenge this weekend, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Georgia Tech is getting 56 percent of bets to either upset Clemson outright at home, or to at least keep the final margin to a field goal or less in a defeat.

The other 44 percent of wagers project Clemson will beat the Yellow Jackets by at least four points and avoid a 1-2 start.

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Computer prediction

But the SP+ isn’t the only model forecasting an upset in Atlanta this weekend, as other analytical football prediction systems expect the Jackets to make this a game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Georgia Tech emerged as the narrow favorite over Clemson in this game, projected to come out ahead in 55.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves the Tigers as the presumptive winner in the remaining 44.1 percent of sims, so there’s still a decent chance they’ll come out of this on the right side.

But it could be close either way, as Georgia Tech is projected to finish just 1.3 points better than Clemson on the same field, according to this model’s latest forecast.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.5 percent of all games and hit 48.4 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

More: ESPN computer predicts Clemson vs. Georgia Tech game winner

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How to watch Clemson vs. Georgia Tech

When: Sat., Sept. 13
Where: Georgia Tech

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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