Clemson vs. LSU Score Prediction by Expert Football Model

College football and Lane Kiffin make their anticipated debuts on Saturday night under the lights in Death Valley as LSU and Clemson face off in a game that will doubtless be over-analyzed whoever wins and by how much.

All eyes are on Kiffin to produce right away after jumping ship from Ole Miss into apparently greener pastures, while Dabo Swinney is hoping to use the game to prove to anyone still watching that he hasn’t finally lost his touch.

What do the analytics predict for this Tigers vs. Tigers matchup? For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Clemson and LSU compare in this Week 1 opening game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Clemson vs. LSU score prediction

Coming into this matchup, the model is siding with the Tigers playing in their home stadium.

SP+ predicts that LSU will defeat Clemson by a projected score of 28 to 18 and will win the game by an expected margin of 9.8 points in the process.

The model gives LSU a very confident 73 percent chance to win the game outright by any amount.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 6-2 in its picks against the spread with a solid 75.0 win percentage.

Who is favored to win?

The bookies like Kiffin by more than double digits against Dabo in his debut.

LSU is listed as a 10.5 point favorite against Clemson, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 50.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for LSU at -410 and for Clemson at +315 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Don’t sleep on Christopher Vizzina, the newbie quarterback taking over the Clemson offense. He’s light on experience, but with some promise, throwing for 317 yards and 3 TDs in his lone start, against SMU, a year ago, and he’s dealing with a group of very talented receivers who have the speed and agility to contend with LSU’s secondary.

Sam Leavitt has the tools to test Clemson’s back end tacklers, too, but the verdict is still very much out on whether LSU can revive a rushing attack that ranked among the worst nationally last season. If Clemson can stall some of LSU’s early drives and force some third and longs, they can keep this close. At least early.

College Football HQ says: LSU beats Clemson, and covers the spread.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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