ESPN computer predicts college football's 10 most plausible national champions in 2025

Predicting what college football teams have the most likely path to a national championship in 2025, according to ESPN's computer prediction model.

Our first look at what college football teams have a realistic path to the national championship in 2025. / Brett Davis | Imagn Images

College football teams around the country are looking forward to getting players back on campus for fall camp, having gone through two transfer portal windows and forging their rosters in time for the 2025 season, a perfect time to update some predictions.

ESPN has revealed its complete preseason 136-team college football rankings, a gold mine of analytics and predictions from the Football Power Index computer models that seek to project how every FBS team’s season will look from start to finish.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

What teams do the prediction model think have the most realistic chance of making the national championship game this season? Here are the 10 schools within striking distance.

10. Tennessee

Tennessee Athletic

Chance: 5.6%

Win total: 8.7 wins

Need to know: A real vote of confidence in the Vols from the prediction models despite the sudden departure of their starting quarterback. Joey Aguilar steps in for Nico Iamaleava, and while he can put up numbers, he’s also prone to turnovers. Tennessee’s defense loses edge rusher James Pearce, but should still be one of the SEC’s better units.

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9. Miami

Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Chance: 6.2%

Win total: 9.7 wins

Need to know: Miami’s defense gave up almost 31 points to ACC opponents a year ago and struggled against the pass, but some transfers should beef up this unit, while Carson Beck steps in at quarterback behind one of the nation’s top offensive lines, but coming off an elbow surgery and looking at a new receiver corps.

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8. Clemson

The Independent Mail-USA TODAY NETWORK

Chance: 6.8%

Win total: 9.7 wins

Need to know: The current favorite to win the ACC with Cade Klubnik returning at quarterback after a career year with 43 all-purpose touchdowns, in tandem with a very promising wide receiver group, while Clemson should field two of the best scrimmage lines in the country, including four returning starters in front of Klubnik.

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7. Notre Dame

Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

Chance: 7.3%

Win total: 9.3 wins

Need to know: Steve Angeli’s transfer should pave the way for CJ Carr to prove his starting potential at quarterback, and he’ll be aided by a star backfield headlined by Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, but the Irish face a tough early schedule, going to Miami, hosting Texas A&M, at Arkansas, and against Boise State.

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6. Oregon

Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Chance: 10.4%

Win total: 10.0 wins

Need to know: We could see the Ducks take a slight step backwards after a 13-0 regular season run last season, installing a new quarterback in former 5-star Dante Moore and tailback Makhi Hughes, both working behind a line with new, but excellent, blockers.

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5. Penn State

Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Chance: 14.4%

Win total: 10.2 wins

Need to know: Few if any teams in college football have the Nittany Lions’ continuity on offense, returning their quarterback and two lead rushers, all behind a line bringing back all five starters after ranking top 25 in rushing yards and sacks allowed a year ago.

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4. Alabama

Will McLelland-Imagn Images

Chance: 20.2%

Win total: 9.6 wins

Need to know: Coming off a 9-4 debut, Kalen DeBoer has a big question to answer at quarterback after Jalen Milroe’s exit. The QB’s successor, likely former 5-star prospect Ty Simpson, will sit behind an elite line with three returning starters, and has a stellar wide receiver corps to lean on, led by phenom Ryan Williams.

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3. Ohio State

Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Chance: 21.3%

Win total: 10.4 wins

Need to know: The heat is on reigning national champ Ryan Day to prove his coaching mettle, overseeing a ton of turnover, including both coordinators, his quarterback, two lead rushers, and his elite pass rushing pair. 

The cupboards aren’t bare, though, as college football’s top wideout, Jeremiah Smith, returns to lead the nation’s best receiving corps, safety Caleb Downs is back, in addition to some intriguing transfers, including tight end Max Klare and tailback C.J. Donaldson.

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2. Georgia

Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Chance: 30.0%

Win total: 10.1 wins

Need to know: Kirby Smart oversees yet more turnover, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but his well-oiled recruiting machine ensures the Bulldogs will be well-stocked at important positions. Gunner Stockton steps in at quarterback, low on experience but high on potential, and hoping some transfer receivers and what needs to be an improved ground game are there to help him develop.

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1. Texas

Ricardo B. Brazziell-USA Today Network via Imagn Images

Chance: 37.7%

Win total: 10.4 wins

Need to know: Arch Manning gets the attention thanks to that last name and his No. 1 ranking as a recruit, but the Longhorns have plenty more to rely on, including what should be the SEC’s top defense armed with a lethal pass rush, a gifted rushing attack, and some of the country’s best receiving threats.

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