College football score predictions for Week 1 games by expert model

Finally, the 2025 college football season gets underway with our first regular Saturday action across the country, and with plenty of impactful games out of the gate. Let’s take a look at the updated predictions for the top games from an expert analytical football model that picks winners.

Saturday brings us two games involving top 10 teams playing head to head on the same field, while a third such matchup is set for Sunday night.

Week 1 includes a rematch of a College Football Playoff semifinal game involving the reigning national champion, while Arch Manning finally takes the field as a starter.

What do the analytics suggest for college football’s Week 1 action?

Looking ahead to this week’s matchups, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

College football Week 1 expert predictions

College football predictions for Week 1 games by expert model — Barbara Perenic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Texas at Ohio State

Expert prediction: Texas is the narrow favorite against Ohio State on the road with Manning at the helm of this offense, coming out ahead in 53 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

Texas by 1 over Ohio State

Syracuse vs. Tennessee

Expert prediction: The computers are predictably taking Tennessee in this neutral site game, as it tends to with SEC teams playing non-conference games, but likes the Vols’ offense with Joey Aguilar the helm against the Orange secondary that was 82nd nationally last season.

Tennessee by 15 over Syracuse

Old Dominion at Indiana

Expert prediction: Indiana debuts at No. 20 in the preseason AP top 25 rankings, losing some of its production from that historic 11-win playoff team, but retains enough especially on defense to still make a little run this fall. The Hoosiers come out ahead in 89 percent of the simulations in the opener.

Indiana by 15 over Old Dominion

Nevada at Penn State

Expert prediction: Penn State checks out in 99 percent of the index’s projections against a Wolf Pack team coming off a three-win campaign and bringing on a new quarterback. The Nittany Lions have the firepower to win the Big Ten this year.

Penn State by 39 over Nevada

College football score predictions for Week 1 games by expert model — Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Marshall at Georgia

Expert prediction: No surprises here, but reigning SEC champion Georgia wins this game in 97 percent of the simulations against a team that won the Sun Belt last season, but replaces most of that squad.

Georgia by 29 over Marshall

Alabama at Florida State

Expert prediction: The machines like the Crimson Tide in 91 percent of the simulations, not saying much for the Seminoles to defend their home turf, but the visitors from the SEC have a decisive edge at the skill positions and on defense.

Alabama by 17 over Florida State

South Dakota at Iowa State

Expert prediction: Iowa State is already at 1-0 after a signature win over Kansas State in the Week 0 game and return home in a matchup it’s set to win with 91 percent odds.

Iowa State by 18 over South Dakota

Montana State at Oregon

Expert prediction: The reigning Big Ten champs open at Autzen with 95 percent odds to start off undefeated.

Oregon by 25 over Montana State

Illinois State at Oklahoma

Expert prediction: Another gimme for an SEC squad out of conference, as the Sooners have 98 percent odds to win the opener at home before hosting Big Ten hopeful Michigan in Norman next weekend.

Oklahoma by 34 over Illinois State

Long Island at Florida

Expert prediction: DJ Lagway and a solid Gators offense get a chance to tune up in this one with more than a 99 percent likelihood to win.

Florida by 52 over Long Island

North Dakota at Kansas State

Expert prediction: Kansas State is likely falling in the rankings despite this game after last week’s loss to Iowa State, but is a 98 percent favorite in its home debut.

Kansas State by 31 over North Dakota

UTSA at Texas A&M

Expert prediction: A nice easy win for the Aggies, who have a 92 percent chance to take care of this non-conference foe at Kyle Field.

Texas A&M by 19 over UTSA

LSU at Clemson

Expert prediction: A marquee top 10 matchup with playoff implications, and a narrow 54 percent chance for Clemson to get the better of its SEC counterpart in this battle between two of college football’s best quarterbacks.

Clemson by 1 over LSU

New Mexico at Michigan

Expert prediction: Michigan has a 97 percent likelihood to start 1-0 at home.

Michigan by 30 over New Mexico

Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Texas Tech

Expert prediction: Our first look at what the Red Raiders invested in this offseason, when they went on a notable spending spree and came away with the No. 1 transfer class in the country. The computer gives Tech a 100 percent shot in the opener.

Texas Tech by 53 over Pine Bluff

Georgia State at Ole Miss

Expert prediction: Lane Kiffin gets his new-look roster on the field, giving fans their first glimpse at Austin Simmons taking over for Jaxson Dart at quarterback, as the Rebels have a 94 percent chance to win this opener with ease.

Ole Miss by 23 over Georgia State

East Texas A&M at SMU

Expert prediction: The reigning ACC runner-up gets a 99 percent chance in Week 1.

SMU by 40 over East Texas A&M

Northern Arizona at Arizona State

Expert prediction: Last year’s surprise Big 12 champs lose Cam Skattebo in the backfield but retain a proven QB-WR duo in Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson, with a 98 percent chance to start their title defense 1-0.

Arizona State by 31 over Northern Arizona

Virginia Tech at South Carolina

Expert prediction: Can the Gamecocks can a step forward, or stumble two steps back after losing key defensive personnel? They have a 71 percent chance in the opener against a Hokies team that brings back Kyron Drones under center.

South Carolina by 6 over Virginia Tech

Notre Dame at Miami

Expert prediction: Carson Beck steps into the QB1 role for the Hurricanes alongside new receivers and hoping their defensive front can contain what will be a very powerful Irish ground attack. The computers give the Golden Domers a 55 percent shot here.

Notre Dame by 1 over Miami