David Pollack gives score prediction, winner for Texas-Florida in Week 6

Texas defense, portal upgrades, and Arch Manning give Longhorns the edge over Florida, per David Pollack.

Texas football quarterback Arch Manning (16) and the Longhorns face a tough SEC road test against the Florida Gators this weekend. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

The challenge intensifies for the Texas Longhorns this weekend as they make their first trip to Gainesville since 1940. Ranked No. 9 and fresh off a bye, Texas opens its SEC schedule on the road against a Florida Gators team that is desperate for a turnaround after a disappointing 1-3 start. It is the kind of matchup that can swing momentum for both programs — one looking to establish itself in the league, the other trying to salvage a season that has already slipped off course.

College football analyst David Pollack broke down the game on his See Ball Get Ball podcast and leaned heavily on the defensive side of the ball. He said the Longhorns’ ability to limit an opponent, create pressure up front, and rely on Arch Manning to stay steady is enough to leave Ben Hill Griffin Stadium with a 24-13 win.

Pollack admitted Florida has the elements for an upset. The defense has played well enough to keep games competitive, the Gators get Texas at home, and players have been told all week that they have underachieved. That kind of motivation can make a game uncomfortable. Still, when pressed for a pick, Pollack pointed to one glaring issue: Florida’s inability to generate production against top defenses.

Pollack Cites Texas Defense, Quarterback Play And Transfer Impact

Pollack emphasized one theme above all else: defense travels. He reminded listeners that Texas allowed only 14 points at Ohio State, calling that proof the unit is “elite.” He also stressed the upside of linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and defensive lineman Alfred Collins, two players he believes have not yet played their best football.

Beyond returning talent, Pollack praised the Longhorns’ portal additions. Hero Kanu from Ohio State, Sulaiman Kpaka from Purdue, and Travis Shaw from UNC Charlotte have given Texas more push at the line of scrimmage and, in his view, turned depth into production.

Texas football defensive back Michael Taaffe (16) leads the Longhorns with 25 total tackles. | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Quarterback play is another deciding factor. Pollack said Arch Manning has shown more growth than Florida’s DJ Lagway, pointing out that Manning avoided turnovers in his last game and has displayed progress with fundamentals. “What I’ve seen from Arch Manning is better than what I’ve seen from DJ Lagway,” Pollack explained. He credited the bye week as a chance for Manning to reset while describing Lagway’s mistakes as more consistent and damaging.

Florida’s offense remains the concern. The Gators went 0-for-13 on third down against Miami and threw five interceptions against LSU, averaging just 2.6 yards per pass attempt. Pollack noted that while a big play early could change the feel of the game, he does not see enough sustained execution to believe Florida can match Texas. Against a secondary and front seven that force errors, he expects the Longhorns to pull away.

Florida’s Offensive Woes And Napier’s Increasing Pressure

Pollack’s reasoning centered on Lagway’s uneven play and the limitations of Florida’s scheme. He said Jadan Baugh deserves more carries but pointed out that even with an effective runner, the passing game has not provided balance. Florida’s offensive approach has been reduced to relying on the defense to bail them out, and Pollack argued that is not enough against a unit like Texas.

He also raised the question of Billy Napier’s future if things do not change. “If Florida is inept again offensively coming off the bye and lose by double digits, is the job opening?” Pollack asked.

Florida football head coach Billy Napier and the Gators seek to get their season on track against the Texas Longhorns. | Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

He emphasized that Napier calls the plays himself and pointed out that the defense “is good enough to win games.” With fans demanding more, he suggested patience could be running out.

Pollack ultimately sided with Texas because of its defense, improved depth from the portal, and steadier quarterback play.

The Longhorns travel to Gainesville to face the Gators on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.