David Pollack predicts Iowa-USC final score will be decided by a two-touchdown margin

The battle between the No. 21 Iowa Hawkeyes and No. 17 USC Trojans on Saturday carries more weight than just a mid-November ranking. It’s a clash between one of the nation’s most disciplined defenses and one of its most explosive offenses, meeting for the first time in nearly half a century at the Coliseum.

USC, undefeated at home, enters with a 7-2 record and a renewed edge under head coach Lincoln Riley. Iowa, at 6-3, will try to counter that firepower with physicality and defensive control.

On his See Ball Get Ball podcast, college football analyst David Pollack shared his view of how this matchup will unfold. He said that while the game would favor Iowa in cold Iowa City, the conditions in Southern California make it a different story.

“USC takes care of business. They win by two touchdowns,” Pollack said. The difference, he argued, comes down to the Trojans’ offensive balance and the explosive rhythm quarterback Jayden Maiava has developed with his receivers.

David Pollack Contrasts USC’s Offensive Versatility Against Iowa’s Limitations

Maiava has been a consistent engine for USC, throwing for 2,614 yards with 17 touchdowns while completing 66.2% of his passes. Wide receiver Makai Lemon has emerged as one of the nation’s top targets, totaling 937 yards and seven scores. Running back King Miller adds 636 rushing yards and five touchdowns, helping the Trojans average more than 500 yards per game.

Iowa relies on an opposite identity. The Hawkeyes boast one of the country’s stingiest defenses, ranking No. 4 nationally in total yards allowed. They give up just 13.7 points per game and lead the nation in fewest penalty yards. But the offense has been inconsistent.

Quarterback Mark Gronowski has just five passing touchdowns, and Iowa ranks last in the FBS in passing offense. That lack of balance may be what Pollack believes will tilt the game toward USC’s favor.

USC Trojans running back King Miller (30) has 100 or more rushing yards and a touchdown in three of his last four games. | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Pollack noted that USC’s skill position players give the Trojans flexibility few teams can match. “Jade Aiva will be the man to watch,” he said, referring to Maiava. “He’s almost 300 a game, which is top 10 in the FBS. Like, he’s just behind CJ Carr and Julian Sayin.” He added that the connection between Maiava and Lemon “ain’t like they don’t run it too. The balance of this USC offense is really, really, really good.”

He credited Riley for finally pairing his trademark offense with a stronger defensive front. “We’ve known you can score. We’ve known you’ve been the king of counter and shallow screens,” Pollack said. “We told you we needed you to make a change on defense and bring some physicality.” He challenged USC’s front seven to meet Iowa’s rugged run game head-on. “Can you stop the run? Can you stop a team that can’t throw the football?” he asked.

While Pollack praised Iowa’s toughness and the play of dual-threat quarterback Mark Gronowski, he emphasized how different the setting makes this meeting. “Iowa, this game is absolutely a Hawkeye dub 99 out of 100 times if this game is in Iowa City. USC, those Southern California boys, they would absolutely lose this football game (on the road). But, Iowa going to USC, different animal.”

USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) has accounted for 23 total touchdowns this season. | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The Trojans, who have averaged nearly 40 points per game and rank second nationally in total offense, will try to stay perfect at home. The Hawkeyes, despite their defensive ranking, have dropped three games to ranked teams by a combined 10 points. Both teams remain in contention for top Big Ten bowl positioning.

USC will host the Iowa Hawkeyes at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on BTN.