David Pollack predicts winner of Oklahoma-Texas rivalry matchup

Oklahoma is projected to beat Texas in the Red River Rivalry behind its elite defense and balanced rushing attack.

College football analyst David Pollack picks a winner in this weekend's Red River Rivalry game between the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns. | Abigail Dollins / Argus Leader via Imagn Content Services, LLC

The Red River Rivalry returns to the Cotton Bowl in Dallas on Saturday as the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners meet the Texas Longhorns. College football analyst David Pollack shared his pick on Thursday’s episode of the See Ball Get Ball podcast, siding with Oklahoma in one of the most anticipated matchups of Week 7.

Pollack’s reasoning centered on defense, confidence, and what he described as a mentality edge that has defined Brent Venables’ team through the first half of the season. Despite the uncertainty surrounding quarterback John Mateer’s hand injury, Pollack believes Oklahoma’s defense has shown enough to win even with backup Michael Hawkins Jr. under center.

“I gotta go Oklahoma with a backup quarterback, which is the craziest thing I’ve ever said in my life,” Pollack said. “They’re sacking quarterbacks left and right, forcing fumbles, making play after play after play. It’s been fun to watch this defense.”

The Sooners enter the rivalry allowing just 7.2 points per game, the second-best mark in the FBS, while leading the nation in total defense at 193 yards per game. Texas, meanwhile, is trying to regroup after a 29-21 loss to Florida that knocked the Longhorns out of the AP Top 25.

Oklahoma Defense Drawing Praise Ahead Of Red River Rivalry

Podcast co-host Brent Rollins agreed that Oklahoma’s defensive front is the difference. He noted that the Sooners’ fifth-ranked blitz rate and their ability to disrupt passing games make life difficult for opponents. Texas quarterback Arch Manning has been pressured on more than half of his dropbacks when blitzed this season, a concerning trend against an aggressive Oklahoma defense.

Pollack highlighted the team’s transformation since Venables decided to directly oversee the defensive unit. The Sooners have recorded eight fumble recoveries and rank near the top nationally in both run and pass defense. “What did our boy Venables say? He was like, ‘I’m going to take over the defense. Why? Because I’m good at it,’” Pollack said.

Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables has his Sooners' defense playing like one of the best units in college football this season. | NATE BILLINGS/FOR THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

While Pollack acknowledged that fumble recoveries can rely on luck, he emphasized that Oklahoma’s pressure and discipline force those opportunities. “They’re like a boa constrictor,” he said. “They just squeeze the life out of you.”

Texas has its own defensive credentials, ranking fifth nationally in scoring defense at 12 points per game and allowing just 79.6 rushing yards per contest. But the Longhorns’ offensive issues, particularly in pass protection and consistency from the offensive line, have become a recurring theme.

Backup Quarterback Could Decide Oklahoma-Texas Outcome

Mateer remains questionable after surgery to repair a broken bone in his throwing hand, leaving Hawkins as the likely starter. The sophomore played well in Oklahoma’s 44-0 win over Kent State last week, throwing for 162 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for another score.

Pollack argued that Oklahoma can win by leaning on its ground game and a disciplined defense. “They’ll create more space. The running game will be huge,” he said, pointing to running back Tory Blaylock’s 78-yard performance last week.

Oklahoma quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. (3) may be the starter with John Mateer listed as questionable against Texas. | NATE BILLINGS/FOR THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rollins predicted a low-scoring contest, calling it a “first [team] to 20 game,” and forecasted Oklahoma to win 20-17. Pollack echoed that sentiment, saying he expects a physical, grinding matchup rather than a shootout with the Sooners emerging as the winner.

Both analysts pointed to the Sooners’ ability to control tempo and field position as keys. Oklahoma’s red-zone offense is perfect on the season, scoring on all opportunities, while Texas ranks 83rd in red-zone defense. With both teams strong on third down but struggling to create explosive plays, the outcome may hinge on turnovers and short fields.

Oklahoma will face Texas in the Red River Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET.