David Pollack makes score prediction, pick for Vanderbilt-Alabama matchup

Alabama predicted to edge Vanderbilt 31-24 with offensive firepower outweighing Vanderbilt’s fight.

College football analyst David Pollack predicted the Alabama Crimson Tide would win against the Vanderbilt Commodores this weekend. | Abigail Dollins / Argus Leader via Imagn Content Services, LLC

The Vanderbilt Commodores and Alabama Crimson Tide meet Saturday in Tuscaloosa for one of the SEC’s most intriguing games of the season. Vanderbilt stunned Alabama a year ago in Nashville, a result that flipped the script on the program’s reputation and put quarterback Diego Pavia on the national radar. Now, at 5-0 and ranked No. 16, the Commodores are looking to prove that last season’s upset was no fluke.

On the other side, No. 10 Alabama comes in at 3-1 after a statement victory over Georgia. With quarterback Ty Simpson establishing himself as one of the SEC’s most efficient passers and receiver Germie Bernard emerging as a go-to option, the Crimson Tide are motivated to avenge last year’s loss and reassert control in the rivalry. The matchup has drawn the attention of ESPN’s College GameDay, which will be on site to showcase a Vanderbilt-Alabama clash few could have imagined carrying this level of weight just a year ago.

College football analyst David Pollack broke down the game on his See Ball Get Ball podcast and offered a score prediction that gives Alabama the edge in a competitive contest. He praised Vanderbilt’s offensive growth under Pavia and coordinator Tim Beck but pointed to Alabama’s talent as the deciding factor. “I’m more of a 31–24 guy, but the score is irrelevant. The difference is Alabama’s playmaking ability and the ease in which they can score,” Pollack said.

Pollack Highlights Vanderbilt’s Rise Behind Diego Pavia

Pollack spent much of his breakdown emphasizing Vanderbilt’s transformation and the rise of Pavia as a dynamic leader. The Commodores have reached 5-0 for the first time since 2008 and have scored at least 30 points in each game for the first time since 1915. They rank fourth nationally in scoring at 49.0 points per game, a feat made possible by Pavia’s dual-threat ability.

Through five games, Pavia has thrown for 1,211 yards and 13 touchdowns with a 74.6 percent completion rate, while also leading the team in rushing with 294 yards. Pollack called him “a magician” who buys time, handles pressure and keeps defenses guessing. He noted that Pavia’s improved pocket passing, particularly without play-action, has elevated his game to one of the best statistical levels in the country.

Vanderbilt Commodores tight end Eli Stowers (9) has 22 receptions for 301 yards and two touchdowns through five games. | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Tight end Eli Stowers and wide receivers Junior Sherrill and Tre Richardson have given Pavia reliable targets, while running back Sedrick Alexander has added balance with seven rushing touchdowns.

Still, Pollack acknowledged the matchup disadvantages that Vanderbilt faces against Alabama’s secondary, which ranks second in the FBS in pass defense. He described the challenge as “a knife to a gunfight,” predicting Vanderbilt would need turnovers, pressure and aggressive play-calling to keep pace.

Alabama’s Offense Seen As The Deciding Factor

While Vanderbilt’s rise has been one of the season’s early storylines, Pollack circled back to Alabama’s strengths as the reason he expects the Crimson Tide to pull out the win. Simpson has passed for 1,138 yards with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions, and Bernard has become a versatile weapon with 310 receiving yards and four scores. Pollack also mentioned offensive line talent like Kadyn Proctor and the creativity of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb as reasons Alabama can dictate the pace.

Statistically, Alabama averages 443.8 yards per game, with most of that production coming through the air. Their defense has also been strong against the pass, though more vulnerable to the run.

Alabama Crimson Tide wide receiver Germie Bernard (5) has 20 catches for 310 yards and four touchdowns. | Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

Pollack noted that Vanderbilt’s ability to string together long drives may keep the game close, but Alabama’s explosive 10-to-20-yard plays through the passing game make them difficult to stop. He emphasized that while Vanderbilt can grind the clock and stay efficient, a single mistake could derail a drive, while Alabama has the skill to score quickly.

With revenge on the line after last season’s upset, Pollack predicted Alabama would make just enough plays to earn a 31-24 win and keep itself in the SEC and College Football Playoff hunt.

The Crimson Tide will host the Commodores at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.