Georgia Tech vs. BYU score prediction by expert football model

One of college football’s burgeoning traditions gets underway this week as the annual Pop-Tarts Bowl kicks off, pitting two former College Football Playoff hopefuls against each other as Georgia Tech and BYU face off in this year’s bowl season.

BYU was the runner-up in the Big 12 championship picture, and Georgia Tech was an undefeated playoff contender in midseason, starting 8-0 for the first time since 1966.

What do the analytics predict as the Yellow Jackets and Cougars face off in this matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Georgia Tech and BYU compare in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Georgia Tech vs. BYU score prediction

The models are siding with the Big 12 side of this matchup, by roughly a touchdown.

SP+ predicts that BYU will defeat Georgia Tech by a projected score of 32 to 25 and will win the game by an expected margin of 6.9 points in the process.

The model gives the Cougars a 67 percent chance of outright victory over the Yellow Jackets.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 391-370 against the spread with a 51.4 win percentage. Last time out, it was 4-5 (44.4%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets also project the Cougars will be the better team on the field, in a close game.

BYU is a narrow 3.5 point favorite against Georgia Tech, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for BYU at -174 and for Georgia Tech at +146 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Georgia Tech has some solid offensive firepower on the field, boasting playmakers that put the program in playoff contention for much of the season, led by quarterback Haynes King, a dual-threat input who can create momentum by himself.

Still, the BYU defense presents a credible obstacle in preventing King from taking the game over, and the Cougars are not expected to have many opt-outs, plus are getting a healthier quarterback.

College Football HQ predicts: BYU defeats Georgia Tech, and covers the spread.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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