Georgia vs. Alabama prediction: Who wins the SEC Championship Game, and why?

Winning the SEC championship is one of the greatest prizes in college football, and once again it comes down to Alabama and Georgia to duke it out in Atlanta.

Georgia is almost certainly in the College Football Playoff whether it wins or loses this game, but a win not only ensures a higher seed, but gets a crimson elephant off the back of Kirby Smart.

The two-time national champion Bulldogs coach is just 1-7 against the Crimson Tide despite an otherwise-sterling record, and that includes a three-point loss in Athens earlier this year.

Alabama needs a win here to more convincingly stake a claim on one of the dozen spots in the College Football Playoff. With a loss, the committee could look elsewhere among a crowded field of other hopefuls still on the bubble.

Alabama vs. Georgia: What to watch

Alabama vs. Georgia 2025 SEC Championship Game football prediction — Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

1. Battle in the trenches

Running the football and protecting the quarterback remains the key to victory in any game.

Georgia’s best path is to control the clock with its rushing attack and keep Alabama from dictating tempo, especially after piling up rushing yardage in the September loss but failing in key situations.

Alabama’s defense has been more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, so how well the Tide tackle and fit gaps on early downs will determine whether Georgia can stay ahead of schedule and protect Gunner Stockton.

A recent edge in pass protection for Alabama’s offensive line could allow Ty Simpson to operate more comfortably on standard downs.

2. Explosive plays and turnovers

Georgia’s offense is designed to establish the run and then hit deep shots off play-action, so Alabama must limit those vertical counterpunches without completely selling out against the run.

Under Kalen DeBoer, Alabama has started fast against Georgia, building early multi-score leads that forced the Bulldogs into riskier, pass-heavy scripts.

Flipping that pattern with an early takeaway or explosive score is central to Georgia neutralizing Alabama’s psychological edge that several outlets have highlighted.

3. Money downs and red zone execution

Alabama’s earlier win this season came despite Georgia’s ground success because the Tide were better in the red zone and in late-game situations, showing that conversion downs matter more than raw yardage in this matchup.

Georgia’s defense has tightened in scoring territory over its recent stretch, and if it can force Alabama to settle for field goals, the Bulldogs can keep things good and close.

Alabama’s highly graded secondary pass defense will try to push Stockton into long third downs and tight-window red-zone throws, a formula that would make it difficult for Georgia to match Alabama’s scoring pace.

Alabama vs. Georgia: Who wins the SEC championship?

Line: Georgia -2.5, 48.5

Alabama evolved into an offensive juggernaut after that first loss of the season, carving up secondaries behind the play of quarterback Ty Simpson and a cadre of dynamic wide receivers working downfield.

But that offensive production came in the absence of a credible ground threat and has since cooled off over the last month of the season.

Working against a Georgia defense that has found its groove over that same time could conspire against the Crimson Tide repeating its early-season success in this matchup.

College Football HQ picks...

Georgia wins 28-24
Covers the spread
And hits the over

More: Georgia vs. Alabama score prediction by expert football model

How to watch the SEC Championship Game

When: Sat., Dec. 6
Where: Atlanta

Time: 4 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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