Georgia vs. Auburn score prediction by expert football model

The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry gets underway again this weekend as No. 10 Georgia hits the road against Auburn on Saturday. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores.

Georgia improved to 2-1 in SEC play after a dominant performance against Kentucky following a three-point loss to Alabama that creates a minor obstacle in its path back to the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff.

Auburn is in a bad way after dropping its first two SEC games, scoring 27 combined points in losses against Oklahoma and Texas A&M, and fielding college football’s 114th ranked passing offense with Jackson Arnold at the helm at quarterback.

Georgia has won eight-straight meetings against Auburn in The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry, and the matchups haven’t been too close, winning by an average margin of 18.4 points during that win streak.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Bulldogs tangle with the Tigers?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Georgia and Auburn compare in this Week 7 college football game.

Georgia vs. Auburn score prediction

As expected, the models are forecasting a victory for the Bulldogs over their rivals.

SP+ predicts that Georgia will defeat Auburn by a projected score of 28 to 23 and will win the game by an expected margin of 4.6 points in the process.

The model gives the Bulldogs a strong 61 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 144-152 against the spread with a 48.6 win percentage. Last week, it was 25-25 (50%) in its picks against the spread.

How to pick the game

The bookmakers suggest the reigning SEC champions are narrow favorites this week.

Georgia is a 3.5 point favorite against Auburn, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering the weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -172 and for Auburn at +142 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

Georgia -3.5
Bulldogs to win -172
Bet over 45.5 points

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, the implied score of the game suggests that Georgia will defeat Auburn, 25-21.

The books were correct on 75.3 percent of their straight-up predictions a week ago, and went 57 percent in their picks against the spread, according to The Prediction Tracker.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models also favor the Bulldogs over the Tigers in this SEC rivalry classic.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Georgia is a sizable favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in 64.5 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That peeves Auburn as the presumptive winner in the remaining 35.5 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Georgia is projected to be 3.6 points better than Auburn on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 74 percent of all games and hit 38 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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