Georgia vs. Mississippi State score prediction by expert football model

SEC football returns to the gridiron this weekend, as No. 5 Georgia hits the road against unranked Mississippi State in Week 11 college football action on Saturday.

Georgia is the reigning SEC champion and a favorite to make it back to Atlanta, but Mississippi State is still winless in conference play coming into this game.

What do the analytics predict as these SEC squads face off this weekend?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Georgia and Mississippi State compare in this Week 11 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Georgia vs. Mississippi State score prediction

The models expectedly prefer the visiting team in this matchup, but in a result closer than many fans would prefer.

SP+ predicts that Georgia will defeat Mississippi State by a projected score of 32 to 25 and will win the game by an expected margin of 7.1 points.

The model gives Georgia a 67 percent chance of outright victory over MSU.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 263-253 against the spread with a 55.8 win percentage. Last week, it was 29-23 (55.8%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets predictably expect more from the visiting Bulldogs over the home Bulldogs.

Georgia is a 9.5 point favorite against Mississippi State, according to the game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 56.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -350 and for Mississippi State at +280 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Georgia carries a strong resume into Starkville, buoyed by a four-game win streak and a reputation for closing tight games.

Mississippi State, despite showing signs of progress and playing well at home, still struggles with consistency and depth.

Expect Georgia to lean on its improved run game and more disciplined defense to eventually pull away after a competitive first half.

Mississippi State +9.5
Georgia to win -350
Take the over

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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