Greg McElroy picks Miami-SMU winner on Saturday

Carson Beck, Mark Fletcher, and Miami’s defense headline Greg McElroy’s prediction that the Hurricanes will beat SMU on Saturday.

Miami quarterback Carson Beck (11) and the Hurricanes are looking to avoid another loss in their first game outside the state of Florida when facing SMU on the road. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Miami Hurricanes are leaving Florida for the first time this season, and ESPN analyst Greg McElroy believes they’ll return home with a win. On Always College Football, McElroy picked Miami to defeat SMU in Dallas, calling it a must-win game for the Hurricanes’ playoff hopes.

McElroy acknowledged the difficulty of the matchup, noting SMU’s defensive unpredictability and the importance of Miami’s offensive line. Still, he expects quarterback Carson Beck to play efficiently, manage the game, and avoid turnovers.

“I’m going to take Miami in this game,” McElroy said. “The line is a tough one. I don’t like road chalk. I never have. Road chalk makes me uncomfortable. But I think Carson Beck will play a smart game here. Don’t be surprised if this game is a little close early, but at some point, I think Miami will enforce their will and take over the game and eventually pull away in the second half.”

Miami Faces Tough Test Against SMU’s Pass Rush

Miami enters Saturday’s game ranked No. 10 in the country at 6-1 overall. The Hurricanes are coming off a 42-7 win over Stanford, powered by three rushing touchdowns from Mark Fletcher and a clean outing from Beck, who went 21-of-28 for 189 yards and a touchdown. Their defense continues to rank among the best nationally, allowing just 14.1 points and 270.4 yards per game.

SMU, meanwhile, sits at 5-3 overall and 3-1 in the ACC. The Mustangs boast one of the country’s most disruptive defenses despite ranking 135th against the pass. They have 25 sacks and 12 interceptions this season, creating chaos even as opposing quarterbacks average more than 300 yards per game through the air.

Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck (11) bounced back last week against Stanford after a four-INT performance in a loss against Louisville. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

McElroy emphasized the challenge that Miami’s offensive line will face against SMU’s front, particularly defensive end Isaiah Smith and edge rusher Cameron Robertson. “If the Miami offensive line neutralizes this pass rush,” McElroy said, “then Carson Beck will have a lot of time to methodically dissect one of the worst pass defenses in the country. But if SMU’s front wins the battle, then they might force a couple panic throws.”

For SMU, quarterback Kevin Jennings leads a passing attack averaging 266 yards per game, with former Miami receiver Romello Brinson emerging as his top target. Head coach Rhett Lashlee, Miami’s former offensive coordinator, hopes his team can rebound after a 13-12 loss to Wake Forest last weekend.

Miami will rely on Fletcher and its ground game to control possession against an SMU defense that allows fewer than 100 rushing yards per game. The Hurricanes will face the Mustangs on Saturday at noon Eastern on ESPN.