Greg McElroy Picks Texas vs. Tennessee Winner With A Warning for Arch Manning

ESPN analyst Greg McElroy broke down this Saturday's matchup between No. 1 Texas and No. 14 Tennessee in Knoxville, and his pick hinges on whether the Volunteers' rushing attack holds up against the first SEC defense it has faced this season.

On his Always College Football podcast, McElroy predicted a 24-20 Texas win in the noon ET kickoff on ABC. The Longhorns have played all three of their games in Austin up to now, so Saturday is their first road trip.

Arch Manning's first 2026 SEC road test

Greg McElroy Picks Texas vs. Tennessee Winner With A Warning for Arch Manning — USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Longhorns open SEC play at Neyland Stadium with ESPN's College GameDay on campus.

"If you want to talk about easing into life on the road, that's not it," McElroy warned. "This is learning how to swim in the deep end of the pool."

Texas quarterback Arch Manning wears No. 16, the number his uncle Peyton Manning wore at Tennessee before the school retired it in 2005.

The New Orleans native led Texas back from a 23-3 fourth-quarter deficit to beat then-No. 1 Ohio State 24-23 on Sept. 12. Still, he completed about half of his passes in last week's 30-6 win over UTSA.

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How does Faizon Brandon beat Texas?

Tennessee quarterback Faizon Brandon, a true freshman from Greensboro, North Carolina, makes his first SEC start Saturday. He's thrown for 552 yards and six touchdowns without an interception.

But the 6-foot-4 passer fumbled twice against Kennesaw State and lost one on a strip sack.

"If Brandon plays turnover-free, then Tennessee, I think, has a lot of chances to pull this upset," McElroy said.

Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons, a preseason All-American, left last week's game at halftime and watched the second half in a walking boot.

"I don't think [Colin's injury] is serious," Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said. "It was more precautionary to get him out. I think Colin will be fine."

"If Texas can win on third-and-long without blitzing, then an 18-year-old's got to beat the No. 1 team with his arm," McElroy said.

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Tennessee run game against Texas

The Vols average 47.7 points per game, and running back DeSean Bishop has 286 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 43 carries.

Bishop left the Kennesaw State win with a hip injury. Still, Tennessee coach Josh Heupel said Monday, "We'll make sure he's fully ready to go on Saturday." The SEC's first availability report of the week is due Wednesday night.

"Tennessee has maybe the best unit on the field, and that's the run game so far," McElroy said. "However, we don't really know just yet. We don't trust it just yet because of who it came against."

McElroy also cited a Heupel split: "In his career, Josh Heupel is 57-2 when his team runs for 200 yards. He is 19-26 when it does not."

McElroy's final score comes from another Heupel record. "Heupel is 1-11 in his career when his team scores fewer than 21 points, and 20 is exactly where I think Tennessee ends up," McElroy said. "I'm taking the Texas Longhorns to win this game 24-20."

Tennessee is 2-17 all time against teams ranked No. 1 in the Associated Press poll. Its last win over one came in 1985, when the Vols beat Bo Jackson and Auburn 38-20 at Neyland Stadium.

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