Greg McElroy Predicts Upset of Top-10 SEC Powerhouse in Week 7 Quarterback Reunion

A quarterback returns to face the program he started for last season, and the ESPN analyst believes a punishing run game can decide this ranked SEC showdown.

ESPN analyst Greg McElroy talks to the media during media day before the College Football Playoff national championship game | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

ESPN analyst Greg McElroy picked No. 13 Missouri to upset No. 9 Ole Miss on Saturday in Oxford, convinced running back Jamal Roberts and a suffocating Tigers defensive front can knock the Rebels off course in the SEC title race.

“This is the upset we like most on the board this weekend,” McElroy said while breaking down the 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff. “We’re taking the Missouri Tigers, 28, the Ole Miss Rebels, 27.”

Both teams enter 2-1 in conference play, and 5-1 Missouri is among the programs chasing a first College Football Playoff berth this season.

“At 2-1 in the SEC, both teams are one bad Saturday away from needing some help to potentially get to Atlanta,” McElroy said.

Austin Simmons returns to Oxford

Missouri Tigers quarterback Austin Simmons (13) reacts after defeating the Florida Gators at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons opened 2025 as Ole Miss’ starter before an ankle injury in Week 2 at Kentucky handed the job to Trinidad Chambliss, the Division II transfer who never gave it back. Simmons signed with Missouri in January, and former Ole Miss wide receiver Cayden Lee followed him to Columbia.

The portal traffic ran both ways. Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy began his career at Missouri in 2024 before becoming a Doak Walker Award finalist in Oxford last season.

“The transfer portal didn’t just reshuffle these rosters,” McElroy said. “It scheduled a bit of a reunion, so it should be pretty fun to watch.”

The two quarterbacks arrive with nearly identical production. Simmons has thrown for 1,434 yards with 14 touchdowns and one interception, while Chambliss has 1,435 passing yards. Their styles differ, though. The Florida native in Missouri’s backfield works from the pocket, while Chambliss does his most damage once protection breaks down.

History sits with the visitors, too. Ole Miss is searching for its first win over Missouri since 1974, but Rebels coach Pete Golding is 6-2 since taking over, including two playoff wins as the interim coach last season.

Why does McElroy trust Missouri?

Missouri Tigers running back Jamal Roberts (20) runs the ball as Texas A&M Aggies safety Tawfiq Byard (4) attempts the tackle | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Roberts has 828 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on 147 carries. He ran for 211 yards against Florida, then posted a career-high 222 yards on 34 carries in last Saturday’s 27-6 win over Texas A&M.

“When I think he can’t do any more, he does more,” Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz said.

The St. Louis product’s workload has grown with Ahmad Hardy, who led the SEC with 1,649 rushing yards last season, still sidelined after suffering a gunshot wound in May. Drinkwitz said before the Texas A&M game that “his body’s just not ready yet.”

That workload targets Ole Miss’ biggest weakness. The Rebels entered their Week 6 game at Vanderbilt ranked last in the SEC in run defense at 194.8 yards per game.

“Ole Miss’ run defense is a weakness. The Rebels are giving up 176 yards a game on the ground. That’s 111th nationally, and they’ve struggled against runs that get to the perimeter,” McElroy said. “Against this defense, 200 yards is not an unrealistic number for Roberts.”

Missouri’s defense has been just as convincing. The Tigers held Texas A&M to 29 rushing yards on 23 carries and held Florida’s Jadan Baugh to 13 yards, the same Florida team that beat Ole Miss 52-28. Missouri ranks fifth nationally in opponent-adjusted expected points added per play on defense, while Ole Miss ranks 100th.

The Rebels’ ground game also comes in thin. Lacy returned from a shoulder injury at Vanderbilt and ran seven times for 39 yards after Golding said he’s “not going to take the toll of 40 or 50 snaps.”

“Missouri’s run defense doesn’t just win its matchup. It could erase Ole Miss’ balance altogether,” McElroy said. “When an opponent runs 40 or more pass plays, Drinkwitz is 10-1 as an FBS head coach.”

Ole Miss tempo and red zone threat

Mississippi Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (6) throws a pass against the Vanderbilt Commodores | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

McElroy didn’t dismiss the Rebels’ path to a win. Chambliss threw for 213 yards and three touchdowns and ran for another score in a 52-17 rout of Vanderbilt, and wide receiver Deuce Alexander has 503 yards and five touchdowns on 32 catches. Tight end Caleb Odom, an Alabama transfer, shares the position with Luke Hasz in the Rebels’ two-tight-end looks.

Ole Miss’ offense ranks 18th nationally in adjusted expected points added per play, while Missouri’s ranks 55th. And McElroy believes tempo gives Ole Miss its best counter to Missouri’s deep pass-rush rotation.

“If Ole Miss strings together three or four first downs without a Missouri substitution, then those tired pass-rushing legs could allow Trinidad Chambliss to continue feeling pretty comfortable in the pocket,” McElroy said. “If Alexander wins early and Missouri has to send some help, that’s when Chambliss’ legs start to come into play.”

Missouri’s red zone offense is the other concern. McElroy noted the Tigers score touchdowns on 56% of their trips inside the 20, ranking 102nd nationally, and have made 10 of 15 field goal attempts. Ole Miss, by McElroy’s count, scores touchdowns on 90% of its red zone trips.

“Kicking field goals against an offense that almost never settles for three, that’s how you lose a game you felt like you controlled,” McElroy said.

He still sided with the road team, continuing a contrarian week after he also picked the underdog in the Ohio State-Indiana clash.

“I think Missouri is the more complete football team, and its recipe of running the football to the edges is going to be the difference in the game,” McElroy said.

Missouri’s only loss came Sept. 26 at Mississippi State, where Bulldogs quarterback Kamario Taylor threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-24 win.