Greg McElroy predicts winner of BYU-Texas Tech Big 12 championship game

The 2025 Big 12 Championship Game features two programs with identical 11-1 records meeting at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. No. 5 Texas Tech and No. 11 BYU are preparing for a highly anticipated rematch of a November contest in which the Red Raiders claimed a decisive victory.

This conference title game serves as a potential gateway to the College Football Playoff for both schools as they look to secure an automatic bid.

ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy shared his projected winner during a Tuesday episode of Always College Football. The former Alabama quarterback evaluated the betting lines and the statistical profiles of both rosters before officially backing the favorite to lift the trophy. McElroy argued that the previous result in Lubbock provided a clear blueprint for how the rematch will likely unfold on Saturday.

He pointed to the Red Raiders' physical dominance on defense as the primary reason for his confidence in the higher-ranked team. Texas Tech leads the conference in total offense and total defense entering the weekend. McElroy emphasized that the Red Raiders have very few weaknesses on their resume and are playing their best football of the season.

Greg McElroy Highlights Texas Tech Defense Against BYU

The analysis focused heavily on the Cougars' inability to run the ball effectively in the first meeting. Texas Tech boasts the nation's top-ranked rushing defense and allows just 68.9 yards per game on the ground. The Red Raiders held the Cougars to a mere 67 rushing yards during the 29-7 win on Nov. 8.

"I will take the Red Raiders in this game, and I do think they cover," McElroy said. "They're a brick wall up front defensively, and I'm not sure BYU is going to be able to punch through it."

BYU Cougars running back LJ Martin (4) has run for 1,229 yards and 11 touchdowns on 217 carries this season. | Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

McElroy praised Cougars offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick for his work with freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier this season. He suggested Roderick deserves consideration for the Broyles Award but noted that the conservative game plan failed in the first matchup. The analyst believes the Cougars must utilize the intermediate passing game to loosen up the defense.

"That conservative run-dependent approach, it didn't work last time," McElroy said. "They're going to have to adjust now."

BYU receivers Parker Kingston and Chase Roberts must challenge the secondary to create space for running back LJ Martin. Martin has surpassed 2,000 career rushing yards but was limited to 35 yards in the first game. The personnel matchup favors Texas Tech linebackers Jacob Rodriguez and Ben Roberts. Rodriguez was highly disruptive in the previous game with an interception and a forced fumble.

Texas Tech Red Raiders wide receiver Caleb Douglas (5) leads the team in receptions (53), receiving yards (823) and receiving touchdowns (7). | Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton continues to play through multiple injuries to lead his team. His presence complements the emergence of running back Cameron Dickey, who has scored 13 touchdowns this season. McElroy noted that while the Cougars enjoy a "rock fight," the Red Raiders are equipped to win that style of game.

The Red Raiders will face the Cougars at AT&T Stadium on Saturday at noon ET on ABC.

Greg McElroy Highlights Texas Tech Defense Against BYU

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