Greg McElroy predicts winner of BYU-Texas Tech in Week 11

Texas Tech’s dominant defense and home-field advantage play host to BYU as ESPN's Greg McElroy predicts the winner.

ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy predicted the winner of the Week 11 matchup between BYU and Texas Tech. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The stakes are clear in the Big 12 this weekend as No. 8 BYU heads to Lubbock to face No. 9 Texas Tech. The matchup, featuring two Top 10 teams, doubles as a de facto semifinal in the Big 12 title race and could shape the College Football Playoff conversation. ESPN’s College GameDay will be on site for the first time in Lubbock since 2008, setting the stage for one of the most anticipated matchups of the season.

BYU enters undefeated at 8-0, powered by its ground game and a defense that’s excelled in the red zone. Texas Tech, at 8-1, has overwhelmed opponents with balance and dominance on both sides of the ball, ranking inside the top 10 nationally in total offense and total defense. The Red Raiders’ home crowd at Jones AT&T Stadium, which sold out weeks in advance, adds to the challenge for Kalani Sitake’s program.

ESPN analyst Greg McElroy broke down the matchup in detail on Always College Football and ultimately sided with Texas Tech. “I’m taking the Red Raiders,” McElroy said. “I’ll also lay the points. That environment will be too much for BYU to overcome.”

McElroy Breaks Down Why He Picked Texas Tech Over BYU

McElroy outlined how the game’s defining factors point toward Texas Tech’s strength up front. He highlighted the matchup between BYU’s offensive line and Texas Tech’s elite defensive front, led by edge rusher David Bailey and linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, which allows less than 75 rushing yards per game. “BYU’s strength is running the ball, but they’re running into a brick wall up front,” McElroy said.

He also stressed the health of BYU running back LJ Martin, who has powered the Cougars’ offense all year. A lingering shoulder injury could limit him, testing BYU’s depth and forcing young quarterback Bear Bachmeier to shoulder more of the offense.

Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton has thrown for 1,750 yards, 15 touchdowns and four interceptions this season. / Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

“LJ Martin is as important to this offense as any player in the country,” McElroy said, noting how BYU’s game plan depends on balance and physicality.

On the other side, McElroy praised Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton and an offense averaging 43.6 points per game. With a full set of healthy receivers and a top-ranked defense, McElroy said the Red Raiders’ path to victory is wider. “BYU can win this game, but their path is narrow compared to Texas Tech’s,” he said.

The Red Raiders will host BYU on Saturday at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.

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