Greg McElroy predicts winner of Louisville-Miami in Week 8

Greg McElroy expects Miami’s defense to overwhelm Louisville in Week 8, predicting the Hurricanes’ pass rush and efficiency will decide Friday’s ACC clash.

ESPN commentator Greg McElroy | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Greg McElroy devoted a portion of his midweek Always College Football show to explaining why one team holds a clear advantage at the line of scrimmage heading into Friday night’s matchup. The conversation focused on Miami’s defensive front and a Louisville offensive line that has consistently struggled to hold up against pressure.

He predicted that Miami will win and cover, calling this game less about schematics and more about physicality. McElroy pointed to the Hurricanes’ defensive front as the deciding factor, referencing their depth, athleticism, and ability to dominate in the trenches. Louisville’s issues in protection, penalties, and run blocking led him to doubt the Cardinals’ ability to sustain drives or protect quarterback Miller Moss long enough for their receivers to get involved.

McElroy credited Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm for his creativity and emphasized that wideouts Chris Bell and Caullin Lacy have been bright spots. But he reiterated that none of it will matter if the quarterback is under constant duress. “I’m taking Miami to win. I lay the points,” McElroy said. “After watching Louisville’s offensive line, I think they’re going to get completely overwhelmed. Unless Brohm delivers a masterclass in coaching, this game really shouldn’t be that close.”

Miami To Beat Louisville, Citing Line Play And Pressure

McElroy’s analysis centered on numbers that back up his argument. Miami ranks among the top 20 nationally in total defense and top 15 in rushing yards allowed per game. The Hurricanes have a +6 turnover margin and a deep, disruptive front that features Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor. That combination has consistently forced hurried throws and stalled opponents’ drives.

Louisville, meanwhile, averages barely over 100 rushing yards per game and ranks near the bottom of the country in penalty yards. Those self-inflicted mistakes have compounded the team’s offensive line issues.

Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck (11) has thrown for 1,213 yards, 11 touchdowns and three interceptions. | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

McElroy said he expects Brohm to lean on screens and misdirection to slow down Miami’s rush, but he warned that those adjustments can only go so far against a defense that wins one-on-one matchups across the board.

Miami quarterback Carson Beck has been steady, completing nearly 73 percent of his passes while guiding an offense that balances the run game with consistent timing in the short and intermediate passing attack. With Malachi Toney emerging as Beck’s top target and Mark Fletcher providing reliable production on the ground, Miami controls tempo and time of possession, wearing down opponents across four quarters.

Why The Matchup Trends Point Toward Miami’s Control Of The Game

Recent performances for both teams support McElroy’s forecast. Miami’s 28-22 win over Florida State featured a balanced offense and a defense that capitalized on turnovers. Beck threw four touchdown passes, including two to Toney, while the Hurricanes forced three takeaways. That performance showcased the complementary football McElroy emphasized as Miami’s identity.

Louisville’s overtime loss to Virginia revealed the opposite. The Cardinals moved the ball through the air behind Bell’s 170 receiving yards but allowed five sacks in the second half. Moss faced heavy pressure, and turnovers once again cost the Cardinals crucial possessions.

Louisville Cardinals wide receiver Chris Bell (0) leads the team with 35 receptions for 502 yards and four touchdowns. | Scott Utterback/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Those trends reflect what McElroy believes will define Friday’s game: Miami’s ability to pressure Moss, create negative plays, and limit explosive throws downfield.

The physical difference along both lines of scrimmage, combined with Miami’s discipline and time-of-possession advantage, gives the Hurricanes a path to control the game from start to finish. McElroy praised Brohm’s ingenuity but said Miami’s defensive front is too deep and too powerful for Louisville to handle over four quarters.

Miami will host Louisville at Hard Rock Stadium on Friday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.