Greg McElroy Predicts Winner of Missouri-Kansas Border War Rivalry Game

The ESPN analyst gave a score and a reason on his podcast, and both point to one quarterback deciding the Friday night rivalry game.

College football analyst Greg McElroy gave his winner and the final score of Friday's matchup between Missouri and Kansas. | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

The Border War returns to Lawrence for the first time since 2005, and Greg McElroy has already made his call. On his "Always College Football" podcast, the ESPN analyst broke down the Friday night rivalry game and landed on a side.

Missouri comes in ranked and favored but carries a road streak against Kansas that stretches back a generation. The Jayhawks come in hungry for a signature home win. Here is who McElroy picked, why he got there and what each team brings into the matchup.

Greg McElroy predicts the Missouri-Kansas winner

Missouri Tigers running back Jamal Roberts (20) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

McElroy took Missouri, "I'm taking Missouri to win the game, 27-23."

His reasoning centered on how Kansas coach Lance Leipold's counterpart in Columbia talked after Week 1. "I think Eli Drinkwitz really listed off a lot of his own problems. They won the game by 40, so coaches who talk like that are worried about the next game. Kansas is live at home on a Friday night, but I still think Simmons is going to carve that secondary up first," McElroy said.

Despite Kansas' perceived mediocrity and Missouri coming in ranked, the line is relatively tight with the Tigers being favored at 5.5 points.

Missouri Tigers lean on Austin Simmons and a thin backfield

Missouri Tigers quarterback Austin Simmons (13) throws a pass against the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Simmons made his Missouri debut count. The Ole Miss transfer went 17 of 19 for 252 yards and four touchdowns in less than a half before the backups took over. His top target was Donovan Olugbode, who caught eight passes for 116 yards and two scores.

The run game is the concern. Star back Ahmad Hardy remains out while recovering from a gunshot wound suffered earlier this year. Backup Malae Fonoti tore his ACL against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, thinning the room further. That leaves Jamal Roberts, who ran for 143 yards in last year's win, to carry the load again.

All-American left tackle Cayden Green missed Week 1 with an undisclosed injury but practiced Monday and is on track to play. Missouri ran for 261 yards against Kansas last season and will want to lean on that again.

Kansas Jayhawks counter with Isaiah Marshall at home

Kansas Jayhawks running back Yasin Willis (6) celebrates with quarterback Isaiah Marshall (8) after scoring against the LIU Sharks. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Isaiah Marshall took over for Jalon Daniels and looked the part in his first career start. The sophomore completed 14 of 19 passes for 246 yards and two touchdowns, added 49 rushing yards on seven carries and did not turn it over or take a sack. He built quick chemistry with Buffalo transfer Nik McMillan, who caught six passes for 130 yards and a score.

Kansas piled up 613 yards of total offense against Long Island. The defense flashed too, with 11 tackles for loss and three sacks. Defensive end Leroy Harris III led the way with four TFLs, and he did it after a team-best 4.5 sacks a year ago.

The Jayhawks need this one. Leipold is coming off back-to-back 5-7 seasons with no bowl trip since 2023. A win over a ranked rival at home would change the early outlook.