Greg McElroy Predicts Winner of Clemson-LSU Week 1 Marquee Matchup

Lane Kiffin's first game as LSU head coach comes with no shortage of attention, and Greg McElroy has already picked a winner.

The ESPN analyst broke down Saturday's Clemson-LSU matchup on the Always College Football podcast, digging into quarterback health, third-down tendencies and Dabo Swinney's track record before landing on a final score.

LSU hosts Clemson at Tiger Stadium at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC, with Kiffin making his debut against a Clemson program looking to bounce back from a 7-6 season.

Greg McElroy's pick for Clemson-LSU

McElroy centered his breakdown on LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt, who missed spring practice after multiple foot surgeries. "There's a detail kind of buried in that injured season because under pressure, Leavitt completed less than 50% of his throws," McElroy said. "But when it's clean and things are good around him, 65%."

He also flagged Clemson quarterback Christopher Vizzina's only career start, a loss at SMU last season. "The one real data point is his lone start," McElroy said. "He threw for over 303 touchdowns in route to a loss." He added that Vizzina "lost a fumble on a blind side sack," a detail McElroy tied directly to Saturday's setting. "Tiger Stadium 7:30 on a Saturday night, that's blindside sack delivery system, right?"

McElroy leaned on Swinney's history to frame Clemson's ceiling in the loss. "The hardest fact in this game, very few things beat Davos Sweeney, right? He's 183 and 50 at Clemson," McElroy said. "So, no rushing yards or field position number gets him under 40% by itself. Only two things do. If you beat him badly on third down and you complete passes at a really high clip, those are the two things that would lead to a substandard performance from the Clemson Tigers."

He settled on a final score of LSU 27, Clemson 20, telling listeners, "Take LSU and you can have the 10.5 points. I think they win it."

The case for an even bigger LSU win

LSU Tigers quarterback Sam Leavitt — Quarterback Sam Leavitt (10) during LSU football practice on Aug. 18, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

McElroy's number lines up with what the numbers suggest, and there's a case LSU's margin ends up wider than 27-20.

Vizzina is walking into his first career start as QB1 against a defense that finished third nationally on third-and-short a season ago, a matchup Swinney himself flagged when he named him the starter this week, telling reporters Vizzina has "the pole position" but no "lifetime contract." Clemson also enters with a rebuilt front seven after losing multiple players to the NFL Draft, while LSU's defensive front added Miami transfer Princely Umanmielen, who posted nine sacks last season.

Leavitt has said he's fully healthy, and LSU's line brought in Jordan Seaton, the top-ranked tackle in the transfer portal, to protect him. If the foot injury is truly behind him, LSU's passing offense should operate close to its uncompressed numbers from Leavitt's efficient stretches, not the pressured version that produced his three interceptions a season ago.

Add in Death Valley at night, where LSU has won 27 straight home games against unranked opponents, and a true road opener for a first-time starter becomes a tougher climb than a seven-point spread alone captures. If Vizzina struggles with the moment the way McElroy's breakdown suggests he could, LSU has the personnel on both sides of the ball to turn a competitive game into a decisive one.

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