Greg McElroy predicts winner of Florida State-Virginia matchup

While Saturday is the quasi-official day of college football, ESPN analyst Greg McElroy went for the Friday night in breaking down one of Week 5's biggest games. McElroy studied Friday's Florida State/Virginia battle and found plenty that he liked on both sides. "Don't be surprised if this is a shootout," noted McElroy on Always College Football. "I'm taking Florida State... a team that feels like they're on a mission."

Virginia's hopes

McElroy is impressed with the building that Tony Elliott has done at 3-1 Virginia. North Texas transfer Chandler Morris has been impressive at QB, passing for 1,050 yards and eight touchdowns against a single interception. McElroy termed Morris "pretty electric this year." Teaming Morris with a receiving corps that McElroy called "deep and talented" has produced 45.5 points per game so far this season. Former Kent State product Trell Harris (321 yards, 3 TDs) leads that group.

Brilliant work on third down (58% conversions) highlights McElroy's positives for a team that could play keep away, averaging over 35 minutes of possession per game. "I think Virginia can score," said McElroy. "I just don't think they'll be able to score enough."

Florida State's plans

Dual-threat QB Thomas Castellanos has been the key to the FSU offense, and the No. 8 Seminoles will look to ride him in Week 5. "He's a super-effective runner," explained McElroy, "He's also been really good on the downfield throws." Castellanos has racked up 594 yards despite attempting just 38 passes, with no more than 14 in any game to date.

Castellanos is apparently a bit dinged up, but regardless FSU will lean heavily on its ground-based attack. McElroy praised Gus Malzahn's unit for being "super-physical, super-dominant. " He admitted, "It's record-breaking with how they're attacking people on the ground." Florida State's 363 yards per game on the ground (second in FBS) and 7.07 yards per carry are indeed testimony to an impressive 3-0 start.

Key battles

McElroy wondered about Florida State's secondary against Virginia's receivers. He termed the Seminole secondary "a little thin on experience." FSU is third in the ACC in both pass defense efficiency and passing yardage allowed (169.7 yards per game). But neither East Texas A&M nor Kent State gave much of a challenge, while the nation's No. 20 passing game likely will.

Another expressed area of concern for McElroy is whether Virginia's defensive line will hold up against the Florida State ground attack. Additionally, defensive coordinator John Rudzinski might find himself loading the box to challenge the Seminoles, which could lead to big days for receivers Squirrel White and Duce Robinson. While Virginia has been solid defensively on the ground so far (5th in the ACC with 100.3 yards per game allowed and 3.34 yards per carry), it's fair to note they haven't locked horns with the No. 2 rushing attack in FBS.

Florida State is a solid road favorite, but there are plenty of unknowns as a Virginia team with 32 new transfers looks fairly imposing. The game will be broadcast at 7 PM ET on ESPN from Scott Stadium in Charlottesville.