Greg McElroy previews Duke-Virginia ACC championship matchup

On Tuesday's episode of ESPN's Always College Football podcast, college football analyst Greg McElroy broke down the upcoming ACC Championship game between the Duke Blue Devils and the Virginia Cavaliers.

The contest features a high-stakes rematch from just weeks prior with significant postseason implications on the line in Charlotte. Virginia enters the game as a slight favorite following a strong 10-win campaign under Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott.

Duke secured a spot in the title game despite a 7-5 record, thanks to a complex tiebreaker scenario that eliminated the Miami Hurricanes and others. The Blue Devils posted a 6-2 conference record but face scrutiny regarding whether an upset victory would guarantee a spot in the College Football Playoff.

This uncertainty adds external pressure to a program already looking to avenge a lopsided loss from earlier in the schedule.

McElroy highlighted the psychological hurdle facing Blue Devils head coach Manny Diaz and his squad after Virginia won the previous meeting 34-17. The ESPN analyst noted that the Cavaliers' defense overwhelmed Duke in that contest, limiting the offense to just 50 yards in the first half. Diaz admitted after that defeat that his team was "thoroughly outclassed by Virginia" in a performance that saw Duke scoreless in the first quarter.

Greg McElroy Analyzes Virginia Rush Defense, Duke Passing Attack

Duke's primary concern is finding offensive balance against a stout Virginia defensive front. McElroy pointed out that while the Blue Devils rank 12th nationally in passing offense, they rank 97th in rushing, averaging just over 130 yards per game.

This significant inability to generate yardage on the ground allows the Cavaliers to focus resources on stopping the aerial attack led by Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah.

Virginia utilizes a ball-control strategy that relies heavily on the ground game and clock management. The Cavaliers rank 17th in the country in time of possession and feature running back J'Mari Taylor who ran for over 130 yards in the last meeting.

Duke Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah (10) has thrown for 3,450 yards, 28 touchdowns and just four interceptions this season. | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

McElroy noted that if Virginia establishes the run early it will "tilt the scales in their favor" against a Duke defense allowing 141 rushing yards per game. Receiver Trell Harris also proved vital in the first matchup by recording eight catches for 161 yards.

A major statistical gap exists on third down conversions where Duke struggles significantly. The Blue Devils convert less than 40 percent of attempts while the Cavaliers boast the second-ranked third-down defense in the FBS allowing just over 27 percent. McElroy described this specific matchup as a "middle-tier offense in Duke against an elite third down defense in Virginia."

Quarterback play remains central to the outcome as Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris threw for 316 yards in the previous win. However, Morris threw two interceptions in that contest and must avoid mistakes against a Duke unit that ranks 19th in turnover margin. Duke generated seven points off takeaways in the last meeting.

Virginia Cavaliers running back J'Mari Taylor (3) has 997 yards and 14 touchdowns on 207 carries this season. | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Mensah struggled under pressure in the last outing and managed just over 200 yards passing while taking a critical sack in the red zone. The Blue Devils' offensive line must provide Mensah adequate time to connect on deep routes to receivers like Cooper Barkate.

McElroy emphasized that failure to neutralize the defensive line would make it difficult for Duke to create advantages against the secondary.

The Blue Devils will face the Cavaliers in Charlotte on Saturday at 8:00 p.m. ET on ABC.

Greg McElroy Analyzes Virginia Rush Defense, Duke Passing Attack

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