Houston vs. Arizona State prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Houston vs. Arizona State by an analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

Houston vs. Arizona State prediction 2025 | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

A notable Big 12 matchup kicks off in college football’s Week 9 action on Saturday, as reigning conference champion Arizona State looks to take another step forward against a Houston team on the rise.

Houston has been flying under the radar somewhat this season, despite a strong 6-1 outing so far in head coach Willie Fritz’s second season on the job, already surpassing his 4-win debut a year ago, but his one loss was to the other ranked team he faced, new Big 12 favorite Texas Tech.

Arizona State is back in the rankings after knocking off that Tech squad, making a play for itself in the competitive conference standings, sitting in third place behind insurgent contender Cincinnati and undefeated BYU.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Houston vs. Arizona State prediction

The models project the Cougars will fall to 0-2 against ranked teams in this matchup, giving the Sun Devils a pronounced edge.

Arizona State emerged as the outright winner in the majority 71.8 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Houston as the presumptive winner in the remaining 28.2 percent of sims.

In total, the Sun Devils came out on top in 14,360 of the simulations, while the Cougars edged out Arizona State in the remaining 5,640 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Arizona State is projected to be 6.1 points better than Houston on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Houston vs. Arizona State future projections

Arizona State may have moved into the No. 24 position in the AP rankings this week, but it placed just 42nd nationally in the computer’s 136-team college football poll.

The model projects the Sun Devils will win 8.1 games this season and have a 5.9 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, those other two losses still proving quite costly in the second half of the season.

Houston is just third from the bottom in the Big 12 power rankings this week and it’s projected to win 8.2 games in 2025.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 71.4 percent of all games and hit exactly 50 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.